SunSirs: The Price of Caustic Soda Rose First and Then Fell in February

Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda rose first and then fell in February and then fell at the end of the month. The average price in Shandong at the beginning of the month was 917.5 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was about 1,087.5 RMB/ton, an increase of 18.53%, and the price was up 137.7% year-on-year.

On February 27, the caustic soda commodity index was 158.63, the same as previous day, down 40.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and up 143.63% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to the present)

Analysis review

The price of caustic soda has risen this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of 32 liquid caustic soda in the mainstream market in Shandong was about 890-1,050 RMB/ton. The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to receive goods had increased, and some caustic soda enterprises had less inventory. The price of caustic soda rose in the middle of the month. On the 28th, the average market price in Shandong was about 1,050-1,150 RMB/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei was about 1,150-1,250 RMB/ton. Mainly due to the maintenance of the main caustic soda plant and the reduction in inventory, the downstream demand was more positive than before. At the end of the month, the price of caustic soda declined. Now the price in Shandong has been flat, and the downstream purchases mainly on demand, and the sentiment of receiving goods is general.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 08th week of 2022 (2.21-2.25), there were a total of 1 commodity that rose in the price fluctuation list of the chlor-alkali industry, a total of 2 commodities fell, and a total of 2 commodities had no changes. The main commodities that rose were: hydrochloric acid (1.53%); the main commodities that fell were: caustic soda (-2.43%), PVC (-2.31%). The average change this week was -0.64%.

Market outlook

Analysts of SunSirs believe that the recent downstream caustic soda has not started well, demand has slowed down, and inventories have risen. It is comprehensively expected that caustic soda will run in a weak way in the follow-up, depending on the downstream market demand.

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