SunSirs: PVC Market Is Stable And Weak (10.21-10.25)

1.Price Trend

According to the data monitored by SunSirs (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), the domestic PVC price on October 21 was RMB 6695 yuan / ton, and the domestic PVC price on October 25 was RMB 6655 yuan / ton, with overall stability and sporadic decrease, up 0.53% year on year.

2.Cause analysis

Products: this week, PVC futures continue to consolidate the weak, there is rebound demand, but the rebound is not strong. The spot price is generally stable, and the price of some enterprises is slightly loose. At present, some enterprises have maintenance plans, the market supply is tight, the demand side follow-up is insufficient under the support of favorable conditions, the actual spot trading atmosphere is tepid and the transaction is weak. At present, the pressure of PVC production and marketing is not great. The market transactions are mostly concentrated in the middle and low-end price. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the purchase intention is not strong. It is difficult to accept the high-end price in a short period of time, and the overall market demand is difficult to change greatly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 25, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is RMB 6360-6800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the factory price of carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. The price of raw material coke is low and the cost of carbide is generally supported. The procurement enthusiasm of downstream customers fell and the supply of calcium carbide was normal. Later, calcium carbide fell in shock. The downstream product enterprises are OK as a whole, but affected by the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, they are lack of consciousness of goods preparation, most of them are just in need of replenishment, and the actual transaction is weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 42nd week of 2019 (10.21-10.25), there is one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (1.32%) is the rising commodity. There are 8 kinds of goods falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of goods falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of goods monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are PC (- 6.25%), PS (- 2.95%) and ABS (- 2.94%). This week's average was - 1.06%.

3.Future Market Forecast

SunSirs PVC analysts think: the fourth quarter is the off-season of consumption, which is expected to be negative. At present, the market environment is not good and the seasonal off-season of consumption is superimposed, so it is difficult to make a big improvement in the downstream of PVC. However, with the support of good supply side, it is expected that the future market will fluctuate upward.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with marketing@sunsirs.com.