Sunsirs: Chinese Rapeseed Oil Prices Fell Last Week (3.8-3.12)

1. Market price of rapeseed oil

On March 12, the average price of domestic rapeseed oil was 11430 yuan / ton, while on March 8, the average price was 11662 yuan / ton, down 1.92%.

2. Market analysis

On March 12, Guangdong and Guangxi quoted 11210 yuan / ton, Anhui 11600 yuan / ton, Sichuan 11530 yuan / ton, Fujian 11210 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Jiujiang 11300 yuan / ton. Vegetable oil prices rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, soybean yield was affected by drought in Argentina and soybean harvest was affected by rainfall in Brazil. Soybean supply in South America was worried, boosting oil prices. On Thursday, USDA reported bad news and vegetable oil prices fell.

As of February 26, the vegetable oil inventory of Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian oil plants was 22500 tons, a decrease of 9100 tons on a week to month basis, 61.86% lower than that of the same period last year, the lowest level in the same period of nearly five years.

Last Monday, the European Union rapeseed futures hit a record high, rumored that Chinese buyers washed Australian rapeseed. It is reported that two importers in South China have cancelled the contract for at least 30000 to 40000 tons of Australian rapeseed, and China has turned to purchase European rapeseed oil.

China's Ministry of Agriculture released its monthly supply and demand report on Tuesday, raising its forecast for rapeseed oil production in 2020 / 21 due to an increase in sown area. China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates that China's rapeseed oil output this year will be 5.43 million tons, higher than the 5.32 million tons predicted last month, and the winter rapeseed planting area will increase by 4 million mu (about 266700 hectares).

3. Future forecast

The downstream delivery speed is acceptable, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level. Sunsirs rapeseed oil analysis predicts that there is limited room for the decline of rapeseed oil.

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