SunSirs: China's Aluminum Prices Rebounded in September

1. Aluminum ingot price

According to data from the SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on September 29 was 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from the average market price at the beginning of the month (September 1) of 14,710 yuan/ton; it was a trough value compared to the average market price at the beginning of the year. (January 1) 14,553.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35%; compared with the average market price during the year (March 24) 11,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.27%.

In September, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose. At the end of the month, the price of aluminum ingots fell for 2 consecutive days, falling below the previous shock range (the shock range was 14,500-14,800 yuan/ton), and then the price rebounded, and the overall trend was still running sideways.

2. Fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum

1) In September, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum moved down. According to statistics, as of September 24, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts) totaled 716,000 tons, compared with the total domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts) totaled 755,000 tons on August 28, a decrease of 39,000 tons. 

2) Downstream operation in September: small increase in demand for strips, foils and alloy ingots, weak demand for profiles and cables

Aluminum plate and strip: The operating rate of plate and strip enterprises is relatively high, around 80%. In September, the automotive brazing sheet gradually recovered. The demand for construction board, strip and decorative materials was stable. The tank materials were not as good as the previous period. The overall demand was relatively good, especially for the 5 series and 6 series medium and heavy plates. At present, the production schedule of large enterprises in the floor belt is between 1-1.5 months.

Aluminum foil: In September, the demand for electronic foil, battery foil and double-zero flexible foil was better, followed by medicinal foil and cigarette foil. At the end of the month, Thailand announced that it would initiate an investigation of safeguard measures against China’s aluminum foil exports. India’s anti-dumping threat, 30% of the export volume of aluminum foil is affected by foreign policies, and the export side is not easy.

Primary aluminum alloy: In August-September, primary alloy has new production capacity, and the current industry operating rate is 60-70%. Affected by the high operating rate of downstream aluminum wheel factories, the demand for the main specification A356.2 alloy is good, which greatly offset the negative feedback effect of new capacity.

Aluminum cables: In September, State Grid and China Southern Power Grid announced that there were fewer UHV orders, and the new orders were lower than the same period last year, and the overall operating rate of the industry dropped from the previous month.

Aluminum profiles: The demand for industrial profiles increased slightly during the peak season, but the demand for construction profiles was less than expected, and the overall performance of the profile sector in September was poor. Due to the temporary anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU on Chinese aluminum profiles, the export recovery situation is not optimistic.

3) The price of raw alumina has moved down, and the export volume of prebaked anodes has increased

Affected by the downward movement of overseas alumina prices in September, although the domestic upstream mines have a strong willingness to support the price, the overall domestic alumina market price still fell slightly.

The export trend of pre-baked anodes in the first eight months of 2020 is good. According to customs data, from January to August 2020, the total domestic export of pre-baked anodes reached 1.072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.14%. Among them, the total domestic export of pre-baked anodes in August was 153,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.78% and a year-on-year increase of 131.7%.

4) New capacity

Gongyi Yinshan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd. added an environmentally friendly, low-consumption pre-baked anode production line, which is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The 300,000 tons of pre-baked anode capacity of Nanjiang Carbon Plant in Laer City, Xinjiang, the calciner was successfully ignited this month, and the trial production of baked anodes is expected in October. Yunnan Suotongyun Aluminum Carbon Material Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 900,000 tons, and the first phase of construction of 600,000 tons is currently under construction. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd. 450,000 tons/year pre-baked anode project is under construction, and the specific commissioning time is to be determined.

3. Market outlook

Aluminum prices have been running sideways for a long time, and the upward breakthrough is weak. This is mainly due to the current average profitability of domestic aluminum prices, the high enthusiasm for new production and re-production capacity, and the increase in domestic and foreign price differences, resulting in increased domestic supply pressure. Big. Fortunately, social inventory data shows that although the export market is still down significantly year-on-year, domestic consumption is good. Aluminum prices fell for 2 consecutive days this week, and then quickly rebounded and resumed the sideways trend in September. Business agency analyst Ye Jianjun believes that the recent base metal prices have been greatly affected by external prices. In addition, consumer demand in the traditional peak season of September has increased from the previous month. The market expectation of oversupply in the market outlook has intensified, leading to higher market expectations for consumer demand, and consumer demand is less than market expectations, which will affect the recent price trend. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingots in October will be weak and stable, and the price range will be 13,500- 15,000 yuan/ton.

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