SunSirs: China's Aluminum Prices Fell First and then Rose in August

According to data from SunSirs, the average domestic aluminum ingot market price was RMB 14,786.67/ton on August 26, which was a decrease of 1.49% from the average market price at the beginning of the month (August 1) of RMB 15,010/ton; March 1) 14,553.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; compared to the average market price during the year (March 24) 11230 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.59%.

In August, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose, with a shock range of 1,4400-15,000 yuan/ton.

Domestic supply and demand in July

Electrolytic aluminum: In July, the national output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.121 million tons, an increase of 1.83% year-on-year. From January to July 2020, the total domestic production of electrolytic aluminum was 21.13 million tons, an increase of 2.76 year-on-year.

Raw material metallurgical grade alumina: In July, the output of metallurgical grade alumina was 5.699 million tons, and the average daily output of metallurgical grade was 184,000 tons, an increase of 0.04% year-on-year.

Downstream demand: China exported 373,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%. Note: From January to July, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 2.739 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21%.

Social inventories stabilized in August: According to statistics, on August 20, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory was 762,000 tons, and the social inventory operating range this month was 730-77 million tons.

Forecast

At present, the price of electrolytic aluminum is stable and strong, and the market outlook is expected to continue.

On the raw material side, overseas production cuts pushed up alumina prices and bottomed out; the pre-baked anode market was relatively stable. At present, the profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is at a high level. Although a batch of new production capacity will be launched this month, and there are signs of a slight rebound in electrolytic aluminum inventory, the current social inventory is still relatively low. The downstream is about to enter the traditional peak season for consumption, and the operating rate has increased slightly, supporting the strong operation of domestic aluminum prices.

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