SunSirs: Propylene Oxide Prices Continue to Rise to a High Level Driven by the Demand and Supply

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of June 11, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9,800 RMB/ton, which was 9.70% higher than June 1 (8,933.33 RMB/ton), compared with May 11, it was an increase of 9.29%.

Analysis review   

Market review: According to the price monitoring data of the business community, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises on June 1 was 8,933.33 RMB/ton, and the prices of some enterprises were reduced by 100 RMB/ton on the 2nd. Supported by rising raw material prices and new downstream orders, the price of propylene oxide stopped falling on the 3rd and the rally started. The average price of propylene oxide enterprises on the 4th was 9,100 RMB/ton. The cost support was strong, and there was no pressure on the factory inventory. The demand for rigid replenishment was kept, and the price rose to 9,166.67 RMB/ton on the 5th. After the weekend, the raw material propylene market fell slightly on the 8th, but some propylene oxide manufacturers fell negatively and the supply decreased. Under the fear of rising downstream, new orders increased and the price rose to 9,400 RMB/ton. On the 9th, the raw material propylene continued to decline slightly, but the supply side supported the manufacturers' market mentality, and the price rose to 9,600 RMB/ton. On the 10th, the raw material propylene market declined significantly, but due to the reduction in overall supply, the manufacturers have no pressure to support, and the price continues to rise to 9,700 yuan /ton, the downstream follow-up situation is general. On the 11th, the price of raw material propylene continued to decline, but there was no inventory pressure in the propylene oxide plant. With the follow-up support of some devices planned to be repaired, the price rose again to 9,800 RMB/ton. The downstream has a resistance to high-priced raw materials, and the wait-and-see attitude has strengthened.

Raw materials: As of June 11, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to fall. Last month, Shandong propylene prices fluctuated upwards, then fell, and then began to rise at the end of the month. On the 1st, the price of propylene continued the upward trend on Sunday and rose slightly by about 50 RMB/ton. On the 2nd, the price rose again by about 100 RMB/ton. On the 3rd, the price continued to rise by 100 RMB/ton. On the 4th, the price rose by 50 RMB/ton. On the 5th to the 7th, prices were generally stable. On the 8th, the prices of individual companies fell slightly. On the 9th, prices generally fell by 50 RMB/ton. On the 10th, prices fell again by about 100 RMB/ton. On the 11th, it was still reduced by 100 RMB/ton, and the current market turnover was between 6,550 and 6,950 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price was around 6,600 RMB/ton. The sales of propylene are now poor, with a slight inventory pressure.

Downstream: According to the price monitoring data of SunSirs, as of June 11, the domestic reference price of mainstream n-propanol-containing packaging quoted prices was around 11,700 RMB/ton, which was 4.78% higher than the price on June 1. As of June 11, the downstream soft foam polyether new single offer slightly increased with the raw material propylene oxide, and the downstream purchasing activity was general, with cautious wait and see.

Market outlook

Analysts of propylene oxide of SunSirs believe that the recent weak operation of raw material propylene has weakened cost support. At present, the overall supply of propylene oxide has been reduced, and there is no inventory pressure for the time being. It is supported by some subsequent equipment maintenance plans. The manufacturer supports the price, but as the price rises to a high level, there is resistance to the high price raw materials in the downstream. The follow-up is general and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of propylene oxide will be dominated by stalemate finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of the change of raw material price and the start-up of the plant.

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