SunSirs: China's Tin Market Rose 3.2% in May 2020

1. Price Trend

In May 2020, the Chinese 1# tin ingot market fluctuated and rose. The average Chinese market price was 133,637.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of May and 137,912.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 3.2%.

The tin commodity index on May 29 was 70.25, an increase of 0.2 points from May 28, a decrease of 29.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and an increase of 63.91% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present).

2. Market analysis

The futures tin market in LME and Shanghai all rose in May, and the relative increase in Lme tin was relatively small. Shanghai tin reached the highest price of 134,740 yuan/ton on May 29th due to the double domestic meetings and the tight supply of tin mines, an increase of 8,000 yuan / ton from last month, a monthly increase of about 6%.

The spot market followed the trend of Shanghai tin, and the overall shock was predominant on the 18th. On the 19th, the Shanghai tin contract mainly reduced the short position and the long position of the 2007 contract. The price of the Shanghai futures tin was greatly increased, and the price rose sharply. After stabilizing, with the impact of the decline in lead in Shanghai, Shanghai tin underwent a substantial pressure to fall, the spot market entered a high consolidation period, and the downstream was affected by cost factors. The downstream maintains the wait-and-see attitude and the just needs to purchase. Without demand support, the spot market has insufficient stamina. As of the end of the month, the mainstream spot market price was 136,500-138,500 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 3.20%.

According to SunSirs price monitoring, in May 2020, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous metals sector in the commodity price rise and fall list, including 5 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The first 3 commodities are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%), dysprosium iron alloy (7.04%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that fell sequentially, and the top 3 products were praseodymium oxide (-3.28%), antimony (-2.69%), and titanium concentrate (-1.69%). This month's average increase or decrease was 2.6%.

SunSirs predicts that the favorable policies brought about by the closing of the two sessions will further affect the metal market. On the 29th, some metal prices rebounded, and the construction of various industries in China will gradually enter the right track. The overall market environment is better in the later period. The current market demand for spot tin market is relatively weak. The market trading atmosphere is limited, and the early traders still fear the high mentality, and the overall need for procurement is mainly. The market will continue on the 29th in June. The 07 and 08 contracts still have upward space in the medium and long term. It is expected that the spot market will mainly fluctuate in the short term. There is room for a slight increase.

3. Related data

China’s refined tin output declines in April due to shortage of concentrate supply: Antaike said on May 7 that China’s refined tin output in April decreased by 10.7% from last month due to insufficient imports of tin concentrate and a smelting in southwest China The factory reduced production. More than 90% of China's tin concentrate imports depend on neighboring Myanmar, which has been short of workers during the outbreak.

Indonesia’s refined tin exports decreased by 28% year-on-year in April: Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade announced on May 8 that Indonesia’s April exports of 4,220.59 tons of refined tin decreased by 28% from 5,868.32 tons in the same period of the previous year and 4,539.19 tons from March, reduced by 7%. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of refined tin. .

WBMS: Global tin market supply shortage of 70,100 tons from January to March 2020. The World Metal Statistics Bureau (WBMS) monthly report released on May 20 showed that global tin market supply shortage of 70,100 tons from January to March 2020. Reportable inventory decreased by 91,100 tons from the end of 2019. From January to March 2020, the global reportable output of refined tin decreased by 11,000 tons year-on-year. Production in Asia fell by 115,000 tons. China's apparent demand has decreased by 17% compared with the same period last year. From January to March 2020, global tin demand was 83,200 tons, a decrease of 8.7% over the same period last year. Japanese consumption was 0.58 million tons, a decrease of 18% from the same period last year. In March 2020, global refined tin production was 24,200 tons and consumption was 30,700 tons.

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