SunSirs: Refinery Petroleum Coke Price Rose Slightly (9.16-9.20)

1. Price Trend

Petroleum coke prices rose slightly last week (9.16-9.20). According to the data from SunSirs, the average price of petroleum coke products in domestic refineries was 1,238.20 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 1,242.20 RMB/ton at the end of the week, up 4 RMB/ton and down 0.32 % in the week.

The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on September 20 was 96.62, unchanged from the day before, down 37.90% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 44.45% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke shipments are stable last week, prices remain stable as a whole, and some enterprises fluctuate slightly.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $54.85 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $58.13 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 5.98%; Brent crude oil was $60.22 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $64.40 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 6.94%. Saudi Arabia's oil equipment was attacked the week before and the market rose in panic. Since the attack, the situation has stabilized. Saudi Arabia has not reduced its oil exports, and American inventories have increased. International oil prices have soared and fallen. Downstream: The trading of calcined coke was stable this week, the demand of downstream carburant market was still optimistic, and the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminium market was relatively stable. According to SunSirs’ data, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of September 20 was 14,296.67 RMB/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were eleven kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the 37th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20). Among them, there were three kinds of commodities rising more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities rising were liquefied gas (7.87%), Brent crude oil (6.94%) and WTI crude oil (5.98%).  There was only one kind of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and the product was diesel oil (-0.77%). This week's average rise and fall was 1.98%.

3. Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of SunSirs predict that the market price of petroleum coke has risen slightly this week. At present, refinery stocks are low. Carbon enterprises basically take delivery according to plan. The market demand of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminium is stable. With the National Day holiday approaching, refineries have been actively clearing stocks in the near future. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will be stable in the near future. Some enterprises will fluctuate slightly. The price range may be between 1,200 and 1,300rmb/ton.

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