SunSirs: Energy, Methanol Market Declined Significantly

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market declined significantly. On March 5, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1,992 RMB/ ton. As of March 12, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1,872 RMB/ ton, down 6.02%. Prices fell 12.81% month on month and 27.20% year on year.

Market Analysis

Products: the domestic methanol market is mainly weak, and the methanol market in some regions continues to decline. The port methanol market maintains the linkage between futures and spot market, which is still affected by crude oil to some extent. After the price rebound, it slightly falls back. The spot buying is relatively general, so it needs to pay attention to the change of port inventory in the short term. In terms of the mainland market, the overall trading atmosphere is weak, and most regions show a downward trend. Prices in the northwest and southwest regions are temporarily stable, among which the local government in the southwest region has increased the work of resumption of production, and the earlier stage of downstream procurement intersection has slightly improved.

Freight: the freight of methanol market has declined. For the part from north line to North Shandong, the reference is 90-140 RMB/ ton, including 130-140 RMB/ ton from Daqi to North Shandong, 90-110 RMB/ ton from mainland to North Shandong; 130-160 RMB/ ton from South line to North Shandong; 100-150 RMB/ ton from Guanzhong to North Shandong, 100-120 RMB/ ton from Guanzhong to South Shandong, 150 RMB/ ton from Guanzhong to part Lianyungang; 70-150 RMB/ ton from Shanxi to North Shandong, 180-210 RMB/ ton from Ningxia to North Shandong.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market has a narrow range. Due to the fluctuation of methanol market in the upstream and the improvement of formaldehyde market, the demand follow-up in the downstream market is weak, which leads to the lower quotation in some areas of formaldehyde and the general transaction.

Acetic acid: the atmosphere of domestic acetic acid market is on the sidelines. Due to inventory problems, the prices quoted by Henan manufacturers are up and down. However, the market supply is sufficient, and the market transaction is still rational. The short-term market is in a wait-and-see state. Shandong Yankuang acetic acid plant is expected to stop this week to ease the situation of oversupply in the market. The resumption of work in the terminal industry is slow. The market in some areas is still weak. The acetic acid market has a wait-and-see atmosphere.

DME: the domestic DME market is weak, and the prices in some regions are adjusted flexibly. Henan Province, the main production area, has poor trading and low price. The mainstream price is 2,770-2,850 RMB/ ton. There are signs of price reduction in Southwest China. The low-end price has dropped to 2,750 RMB/ ton, and market transactions continue to be weak.

Market Forecast

From the perspective of SunSirs, on the positive side, at present, the profits of enterprises are generally poor, and the cost support is fair under partial losses; at present, the price is relatively low, so it is not excluded that some of the middle and downstreams reach the bottom and stock up. On the negative side, some of the early-stage shutdown/ load reduction devices have been recovered, and the supply is relatively abundant; on the downstream side: Linyi formaldehyde resumption time is delayed, and at present, the overall goods receiving in the downstream is poor, and the local demand side is hard to boost in a short term; freight: the recent freight continues to decline, and the arrival cost has been reduced. According to the methanol analysts of SunSirs, the short-term domestic methanol market is adjusted according to its own supply and demand, and there is still a decline expectation in some areas.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.