SunSirs: Lead Market Fell 4.46% in February 2020

1. Price trend

In February 2020, the domestic lead ingot market fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15,125 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 14,450 RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 4.46%.

On February 28, the lead commodity index was 87.94, up 0.15 points from yesterday, down 34.38% from 134.01 (November 29, 2016), and up 17.83% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

2. Market analysis

Domestic market:

In February 2020, both LME lead and Shanghai lead declined, with LME lead falling by more than 4% and Shanghai lead falling by more than 3%. In February, LME lead mainly fluctuated between us $1,790-1,900. The main contracts of Shanghai lead were changed from 2003 to 2004, showing a V-shaped trend as a whole. After the opening of Shanghai lead market, affected by the outbreak of the epidemic nationwide, the price of Shanghai lead fell by more than 5% on that day, and affected by futures, the spot market continued to decline this month. By the end of the month, the main price in Shanghai was 14,400 RMB/ton, down 500-600 RMB/ton compared with the previous month. Most of the manufacturers returned to work around the 17th, but due to the impact of logistics, the market turnover has been low. Most of the recycled lead started to return to work in the late ten days, and there was almost no deal due to logistics restrictions.

Major domestic events:

National Bureau of Statistics: according to preliminary accounting, the annual GDP in 2019 increased by 6.1% over the previous year: according to the statement released on its official website on the morning of the 28th day of the National Bureau of statistics, the annual GDP in 2019 was 99,086.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry is 7,046.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; the added value of the secondary industry is 38,616.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%; the added value of the tertiary industry is 53,423.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. The added value of the primary industry accounts for 7.1% of the GDP, the added value of the secondary industry accounts for 39.0%, and the added value of the tertiary industry accounts for 53.9%.

China's official manufacturing PMI in February: 35.7 predicted value: 46; top value: 50. In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down. At the same time, the survey results show that with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. It is expected that China's purchasing manager index will improve in March.

Industry: the global epidemic spreading crisis has raised the market's worries about the economic downturn. The global stock market has plummeted, and the risk aversion mood has made gold reach a new high, the bulk commodities have been sold down, and the basic metals at home and abroad have fallen sharply.

3. Future prospects

From March, the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the return rate of enterprises has increased, and the capital pressure of enterprises at the beginning of the month has eased. However, at present, the spread of the epidemic in the world has increased, global investors are worried that it is difficult to calm down, the selling strength of bulk commodities has not decreased, and domestic metals are afraid to be dragged down.

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