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SunSirs: Market demand is weak and PVC market prices are lower

March 02 2020 09:23:43     SunSirs (Molly)

1. Price Trend

According to data monitored by SunSirs (average ex-factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average domestic mainstream PVC price on February 27 was 6,350 yuan/ton, down 4.33% from last Thursday (20th) at 6637.5 yuan/ton, compared with the same period last year. Up 0.79%. On February 27, the PVC commodity index was 80.46, a decrease of 0.16 points from yesterday, a 19.54% decrease from the highest point of the cycle at 100.00 points (2011-09-05), and a 38.08 increase from the lowest point of 58.27 points on December 20, 2015. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

2. Market analysis

In terms of products: Recently, the situation of resuming work of PVC downstream product companies has improved, but the start-up is low, some workers cannot be fully employed, and some construction industries have not resumed work. In addition, logistics transportation in some areas is still not smooth. On the whole, downstream demand is still sluggish. It is difficult to boost PVC. At present, PVC inventory is still at a high level. There is an increase in remanufacturing manufacturers. The supply is sufficient. The demand side just needs to purchase. Many companies have certain stocks before the holiday. The demand is not high. On the whole, the supply and demand situation in the PVC market is still high. There is a certain amount of pressure on merchants to ship, and market weakness is the norm, which is difficult to change for a while. According to the monitoring of the business agency data, as of February 27, the domestic mainstream PVC quotation range was 6000-6450 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream of PVC5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is around 6200-6360 yuan/ton, and the range of PVC5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 6200-6350 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is around 6220-6240 yuan/ton. Deals are negotiable.

In terms of futures: The main PVC contract of V2005 dropped slightly, closing at 6295 yuan/ton, -20 yuan from the previous trading day; trading volume of 82,030 hands, +16,681 hands; positions of 213,564 hands, -15,275 hands, -45 yuan, +5-9 spreads -75 yuan, +0 yuan. .

Industry chain: The recent rise in crude oil prices is good for the ethylene market, so data analysts at the business agency predict that ethylene prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, which does not rule out the possibility of an increase. In terms of calcium carbide, the ex-factory price rose slightly, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, and the supply of calcium carbide was tight. The calcium carbide fluctuated slightly in the market outlook. Crude oil has recently fallen for four consecutive days due to the global epidemic. The overlay of market risk factors will increase the amplitude of crude oil. The market ’s over-reaction will also increase the risk of bulls. The recent market or low volatility does not rule out the possibility of continuing to find a bottom. Crude oil prices still need to wait and see, so business analyst data analysts expect ethylene prices to remain in a narrow range. In terms of calcium carbide, the ex-factory price rose slightly, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, and the supply of calcium carbide was tight. The calcium carbide fluctuated slightly in the market outlook.

In terms of industry: According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on February 27, 2020, the commodity price rise and fall of the bulk commodity list rose 3 kinds of products, the top 3 products were butyl rubber (1.01%), styrene butadiene Rubber (1.01%), HDPE (0.45%). There were five types of products that were down from the previous month. The top three products were ABS (-4.14%), PA6 (-2.28%), and natural rubber (-1.11%). The average daily increase or decrease was -0.37%.

3. Market Forecast

SunSirs' PVC analysts believe that the current operating rate of PVC manufacturers is increasing, while downstream demand is sluggish, and market transactions are average. It is expected that PVC prices will remain weak in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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