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SunSirs: China Naphtha Market Fluctuated and Rose in June
July 02 2021 13:45:38SunSirs(Selena)

According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of June 30, the average factory price of domestic mainstream hydrogenated naphtha was 6,886.67 RMB/ ton, up 3.06% from 6,682.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of June, and the price of ground refining naphtha rose. The average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 6,763.33 RMB/ ton, up 4.45% from 6,475.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of June, and the price of direct distillation naphtha in the field has been rising in a volatile manner.

On June 30, the naphtha commodity index was 84.99, up 0.08 points from the previous day, down 17.18% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 101.21% from 42.24 points, the lowest point on July 19, 2016(Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

Products: the price of local refining naphtha fluctuated this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 6,900-7,000 RMB/ ton, and that of straight run naphtha is about 6,700-6,800 RMB/ ton. There is no inventory pressure on refineries in the near future. In the week ending June 23, Singapore's residual fuel oil depots, including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, continued to decline by 574,000 barrels to a four week low of 23,403,000 barrels. During the week, inventories of light distillates, including naphtha, gasoline and reformate, fell 743,000 barrels to a two-week low of 13,482,000 barrels. During the week, stocks of medium distillates increased by 131,000 barrels to a five week high of 13,089,000 barrels.

Upstream: the price of international crude oil is rising, the economy of many regions in the world is gradually recovering, the vaccination in the United States is growing rapidly, the demand for crude oil in the United States is in the peak season, and the expectation of recovery of demand in Europe and the United States is boosting the crude oil market. In addition, OPEC+ alliance continues to adhere to the measure of gradually restoring supply from June to July, Offsetting the risk that a consensus reached in the US Iran nuclear agreement negotiations may lead to an increase in supply supports oil prices.

Downstream: crude oil continued to rise, with good external news support, but domestic toluene market demand remained weak, and price remained weak and volatile; The domestic demand for mixed xylene was insufficient and the growth was limited; In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable last week, at 6,500 RMB/ ton. The release of olefins and aromatics in downstream increased, and the procurement of olefins and aromatics was the main.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the list of commodity prices in the 25th week of 2021 (6.21-6.25), there were 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (6.35%), thermal coal (3.47%) and coke (2.77%). There were three kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were DME (-2.68%), petroleum coke (-2.41%) and MTBE (-0.84%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.12%.

According SunSirs energy analyst, the sharp rise in international crude oil prices has driven the energy market. Refineries are actively shipping naphtha, and there is no pressure to ship. The release of downstream olefins and aromatics just needs to be increased and purchased. It is expected that the price of naphtha from local refineries will be high in July in China, with the average price range of 6,800-7,000 RMB/ ton.


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