SunSirs data monitoring
After the Chinese National Day, soybean oil palm oil first ushered in a wave of supplementary gains. After the big rise, the market plunged. Starting from mid to late, soybean oil palm oil staged a headwind turnaround. At the beginning of the month, the average price of soybean oil in the market was RMB 7,093/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of soybean oil in the market was RMB 7,590/ton, a price increase of 7%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of palm oil was RMB 6,312/ton. At the end of the month, the average market price of palm oil was RMB 6,642/ton, and the price rose 5.23%.
Monthly rise and fall of soybean oil from 2019 to September 202
It can be seen that there are many months for soybean oil to rise in 2019. In the fourth quarter, soybean oil has risen sharply. The price of soybean oil increased by nearly 10% in October, and the increase of soybean oil in December exceeded 8%.
Soybean oil prices have been declining in the first four months of 2020. Soybean oil prices began to rise in May, and they have risen for five consecutive months. The largest increase in July exceeded 12%. The increase in soybean oil in August and September was relatively good. Around 5 points. After the sharp rise and fall of soybean oil prices in October, the market once again ushered in a big rise, with an overall increase of 7%.
Monthly rise and fall of palm oil from 2019 to September 2020
Palm oil performed strongly in 2019, rising for 8 months, and even in the fourth quarter. Palm oil increased by more than 10% in October and December.
Palm oil rose and fell almost similarly in 2020, falling for 4 months and rising for 5 months, with the biggest drop in February, exceeding 20%. The biggest increase was in July, exceeding 12%. Compared with soybean oil, palm oil underperformed in September, mainly due to the impact of palm oil in Malaysia. In October, palm oil experienced a sharp decline after the sharp rise. It began to exert force again in the middle and late ten days. Palm oil rose by more than 5 throughout October.
Long-short game, soybean oil, palm oil rose and fell after the holiday
During the National Day, due to the impact of the La Nina weather, concerns about the reduction in Malay palm oil production are expected to increase. During the National Day, the domestic soybean oil futures spot market is relatively lagging. After the National Day, soybean oil palm oil immediately staged a surge in the bullish support. Soybean oil rose by more than 5% and palm oil rose by more than 7 points. After the market rose sharply, the market gradually recovered its calmness. Soybean oil and palm oil plunged. Soybean oil was relatively more resilient. Palm oil rose sharply and fell sharply. Soybean oil fell by more than 3 points, and palm oil fell by about 6 points.
Good factors hits soybean oil palm oil headwinds
In mid-to-late October, after a sharp drop in soybean oil and palm oil, the market once again ushered in a rise. Malaysia's export data is strong. From October 1-20, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1,084,701 tons, an increase of 4.3% from the previous month. U.S. soybean oil and crude oil performed strongly. Soybean oil palm oil futures rose sharply. Soybean oil palm oil, which was at a trough, rebounded again, with prices rising for three consecutive days, or more than 4%. The futures market rose. Soybean oil palm oil fell too sharply in the previous period. This rise has bottomed out and rebounded. Soybean oil's rise has exceeded the post-holiday height, with an overall increase of more than 7%. Palm oil is close to the post-holiday height, with an overall increase of more than 5%.
SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the fourth quarter is the peak season for traditional oil and fat consumption and should not be overly bearish. In addition, there are still bullish factors at the futures level, and there is still room for growth in the oil and fat market outlook.
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