According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated within a narrow range. From July 17th to 21st (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market increased from 2,220 RMB/ton to 2,224 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 0.15%, with a maximum amplitude of 3.19%, a month on month increase of 10.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.48%.
In terms of positive factors, the narrow rise in coal prices provides some support for market prices; Some traditional downstream devices have experienced a narrow increase in operation, and demand has slightly improved. In terms of bearish factors, some methanol plants in the northwest and southwest have recovered, with domestic supply growth exceeding demand growth. The market mentality is weak, and there is a resistance attitude towards high prices in the downstream. The domestic methanol market shows a fluctuating consolidation.
As of the closing on July 21, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2,235 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,253 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,194 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,218 RMB/ton in the end of the day, a decrease of 38 RMB/ton or 1.68% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2,036,065 lots, the position was 1,315,091 lots, and the daily increase was -16,674 lots.
On the cost side, coal prices have been stable and relatively strong recently, and downstream chemical enterprises have maintained a focus on just in demand procurement, but the sentiment of price increases has spread. The cost of methanol is relatively favorable.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi device is increasing its load, and formaldehyde demand may increase; The demand for acetic acid may not change significantly; Downstream chloride: Jiujiang Jiuhong plans to restart, and chloride demand may increase. Downstream MTBE: Haite Weiye plans to resume, and MTBE demand may increase; Downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin is expected to recover, and demand for dimethyl ether may increase. The demand side for methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.
On the supply side, Shandong Alliance, Xiaoyi Xindongheng, Shanxi Guangda, Shandong Mingshui, and Sinopec SVW units have reduced production; Wangcang Hezhong, Henan Xinlianxin, Shaanxi Jingyi Chemical, Gansu Huating, and Yankuang Guohong units have been restored. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 20th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $286.00- $288.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 66.00-68.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 199.00-201.00 euros/ton, up 0.75 euros/ton.
In the future, there is sufficient short-term supply, stable cost support, and gradually increasing downstream demand. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market may rise again.
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