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SunSirs: Strong Supply and Weak Demand, Copper Prices Fluctuated and Fell During the Week (April 17-21)
April 23 2023 09:40:04SunSirs(John)

Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices fluctuated and fell this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 68,900 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.5% from 69,950 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.03%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, it has risen for 7 weeks and fallen for 5 weeks. Recently, copper prices have been slightly fluctuating and weakening.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States rose at the beginning of last week, and weak data reinforced expectations of a possible recession

On the supply side: With the Las Bambas mine in Peru returning to full capacity, supply disruptions in Latin America had eased, and processing costs stopped falling and rebounded. Although some smelting enterprises under maintenance, the supply of raw ore and cold materials was sufficient, and the smelting output remained high.

On the demand side: In the middle of the peak season, the overall construction of copper materials had not exceeded seasonal performance. After experiencing a brief surge in downstream orders due to the decline in copper prices in March, subsequent consumption had been overdrawn in advance. After mid April, new orders had significantly weakened, and there is a risk of further weakening in the off-season in the future.

Market outlook

In summary, the expected certainty of copper supply increment was stronger than the certainty of demand recovery. High prices of copper continued to suppress demand performance, and the actual consumption power of the spot end had not recovered as much as in the first quarter. Downstream buying interest was not strong, spot trading was stagnant, and copper inventory destocking had slowed down. Overall, the momentum for copper prices to rise in the short term is insufficient, with prices mainly experiencing broad fluctuations.

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