SunSirs: Under the Strong Support of Crude Oil, PTA Rose Nearly 8% This Week

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, this week (February 28-March 4), the domestic PTA market rose first and then fell. As of March 4, the average market price in East China was 6,097 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 7.79%, and up 33.71% year-on-year.

Analysis review

The PTA market rose this week, followed crude oil. Oil prices surged to its highest levels since 2008, driving up PTA costs. As of March 3, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was reported at 107.67 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at 110.46 US dollars per barrel. The current US-Iran nuclear negotiations have made some progress, and the return of Iranian oil to the international supply market has eased supply tensions to a certain extent.

The maintenance of domestic PTA factories has increased, and the industry operating rate has been reduced to around 74%. Next week, Yisheng Ningbo’s 3# 2 million tons/year and Yisheng Dahua 2.25 million tons/year PTA plants are scheduled to restart, but some unplanned PTA plant maintenance is not excluded. The downstream polyester maintains a high operating load of more than 86%, and the demand for PTA is stable. In terms of prices, the polyester market also shows a slight increase under the boost of raw materials. However, after entering March, the terminal orders have not improved significantly, and the downstream inquiries are still relatively light. Some weaving factories produce regular inventory, foreign trade orders have not been placed in batches, and the follow-up of new orders is slow. Therefore, it is cautious about the price increase of raw materials, and mainly purchases on demand.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that in the short term, cost factors dominate the PTA market, crude oil is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it may continue to push up PTA. In addition, in terms of supply, under the low processing fee, there may be unplanned maintenance and production reduction of PTA units. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the planned restart of PTA units is restarted as scheduled. In terms of demand, the peak season of traditional ‘gold March and silver April’ is coming, and the number of orders in the peak season of terminal textiles is expected to increase, and there may be a wave of replenishment. Therefore, the price of PTA in the short term will still fluctuate upward mainly.

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