SunSirs: Tin Market Mainly Shocked (November.4-8)

1. Prices Trend

From November 4 to 8, the domestic 1# tin ingot swung and rose. The average price at the beginning of the week was 136,987.50RMB/t, and at the end was 137,637.50RMB/t, 0.47% higher.

On Nov 9, the Tin Commodity Index was 70.11, the same as that of yesterday, 30.06% lower than the peak of 100.25 in the cycle (Sep 5, 2011), and 63.58 higher than the lowest point of 42.86 (Dec 9, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)

2. Market Analysis of Shanghai Futures Market

Domestic market: The SND market was dominated by weak consolidation. It rose to 16,790RMB/t on Thursday and then fell back to 16500RMB/t. In terms of SN, this week it bottomed and turned up. It generally maintained between 20 and 60, fluctuating mainly around 136,000-138,000RMB/t. The spot market followed the trend of the futures with a narrow range of shocks, mainly in the range of 136,000-138,000RMB/t. The trading atmosphere in the market got warmer. On Friday, the spot price was 136,500-138,500 RMB/t.

Nonferrous metals industry: The easing monetary policy caused by the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino US trade negotiation led to the decrease of Gold prices. The central bank launched a one-year MLF operation of 400 billion yuan, with the bid winning rate of 3.25%, 5 basis points lower than the previous period, the RMB broke 7, and market confidence recovered.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Tin makert shocked in range this week, spot prices remained flat. There are still a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. The economic weakness makes loose monetary policy in various parts of the world one after another. After five consecutive positive days this week, the U.S. dollar may have a high continous rebound blocked. The domestic RMB was also collated near 7. The macro monetary policy has a positive effect on basic metals’ continous rebound and growth, but the more appealing thing is that next week is the delivery cycle of 1911 contract. More metal varieties will change according to the strength of their own fundamentals, in line with the structural change of the monthly price differences. Strong items are alert to high-level pressure. Weak metals or low-level key integers will test the support effectiveness, and the strength differences will increase.