SunSirs: China's Precious Metal Prices Rose Slightly on November 5

Precious metal spot price trends

On November 5, the silver market average price in early trading was 4872 yuan/kg, which was an increase of 1.05% from yesterday’s average price of 4,821.33 yuan/kg; compared with the early October (October 1) spot market price in early trading, the average price was 4585 yuan/kg, an increase of 6.26 %; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the silver spot price was 5550 yuan/kg, a decrease of 12.22%.

The spot market price of gold on November 5 was 370.51 yuan/g, up 1.18% from yesterday's spot market price of 366.18 yuan/g, and compared with the early October (10.1) spot market price of 380.20 yuan/g, an increase of 1.95%; At the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan/g, down 5.56%.

Precious metal gold and silver price trend comparison in the past 3 months

The precious metals gold and silver have a good convergence. At the end of September, the price of silver fell sharply. After the National Day return, the price of silver bottomed out and the price of silver fluctuated greatly. The price trend of gold and silver tended to narrow. Recently, the price of silver has stabilized.

Policy News

The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement stated that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged at 0%-0.25%. The committee members unanimously agreed to the interest rate decision; Billion MBS).

The U.S. October ISM manufacturing PMI was 60.8, slightly higher than the 60.3 expected and lower than the 61.1 in September. From the data point of view, theoretically the manufacturing industry is still in a state of expansion. The ISM survey's measure of supplier deliveries rose from 73.4 in September to 75.6 in October, indicating that the delivery rate is slowing down. The price index measuring the price paid by manufacturers accelerated from 81.2 in September to 85.7. The new orders index surveyed by ISM fell to 59.8 in October, the lowest since June 2020. Manufacturing data reflects the supply chain problems in the United States. The slowdown in the delivery speed of the US manufacturing industry has recently affected the overall manufacturing industry's prosperity. On the whole, the US economy still maintains a good recovery.

Bad influence factors

1. The expected tightening of the U.S. dollar currency has risen significantly.

2. Inflation expectations remain high. Last week, market inflation expectations continued to fluctuate at a high level. The 5-year implied inflation fell slightly after reaching a historical high of 3%.

3. Interest rate hike expectations increase with inflation.

Benefit factors

1. The tail risks of the US epidemic and the debt ceiling issue have triggered risk aversion.

2. The poor performance of US non-agricultural data and high inflation have made real interest rates relatively low, supporting precious metal prices.

Outlook

In the near future, the Fed may gradually withdraw from its loose monetary policy. In addition, there are many uncontrollable factors in the epidemic, and there is no sudden occurrence. The unilateral trend of precious metal gold and silver prices is uncertain. The price of precious metals has been operating steadily and fluctuatingly recently.

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