SunSirs: Review of Chinese Cotton Lint Prices in March

According to SunSirs statistics, as of March 31, the average domestic spot cotton lint market price was reported at 11,105 yuan / ton, down 15.32% from the beginning of March and down 28.93% year-on-year. It was the lowest price since the cotton price was monitored in 2011 by SunSirs. Chiese cotton prices are now at a new low, and the market is trying to rebound, but the development of the US epidemic is not optimistic. The ICE cotton has suffered a setback and the main contracthas entered the 40 cents stage. Cotton prices fluctuated at a low level, and the epidemic affected market sentiment.

In terms of futures, as of the 31st, Zhengzhou cotton's 2005 contract in March fell by 1,805 yuan / ton, a fall of 14.60%, during which it experienced multiple daily limits. The recent contract and spot movements are basically the same, and the current price gap has stabilized in the middle and late March. There are signs of recovery during the 10th and 26th, the former is the US financial measures, all the stock market to boost. On the 26th, the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the target price level for Xinjiang cotton in 2020 was 18,600 yuan per ton, a tentative rebound. Unfortunately, it was a short-lived, and on the 31st it reached a new low. Due to the spread of the global epidemic, the market is generally bearish, and the textile industry chain is deeply affected. The US epidemic is not optimistic. The May ICE cotton contract fell below 60 cents on the 12th, and fell below 50 cents on April 1. Favorable stimuli seem to be weak in the face of the epidemic.

Judging from the main basis rate, the spot is moving closer to the price of cotton, and the basis rate has narrowed to 1.24% at the end of March. However, the main contract changed on the 31st. The original 2005 contract was changed to the 2009 contract, so a cliff-like decline occurred. If the 2005 contract is used for calculation, the 31st basis rate is 4.91%, and the previous day is 8.59%, the decline is also significant. Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at 10,000-11,000 yuan / ton at this stage. The May contract for ICE cotton fell below 50 cents, which is equivalent to RMB and the tariff factor has already fallen below the 10,000 mark. The domestic cotton market is difficult to stand alone. The decline may still be will continue.

SunSirs analysts believe that due to the spread of the epidemic in some foreign countries, production and consumption are in a downturn, and there is a risk of further deepening, orders and transactions are reduced, and cotton prices are consolidating at a low level.

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