SunSirs: High Level Consolidation of China SBR Market

Recently (3.1-3.12), the SBR market has seen a narrow consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 12th, the price of SBR in the East China market was 13,058 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.51% from 12,991 RMB/ton on the 1st. Recently, the ex factory prices of manufacturers have continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 12th, the ex factory price of Jihua Butadiene in the Northeast region of PetroChina was 13,200 RMB/ton, and the prices offered by merchants followed the rise and then remained at a high level. As of the 12th, the mainstream market price of SBR in Fushun, Jihua, and Yangzi in East China is around 12,950-13,200 RMB/ton.

Recently (3.1-3.12), the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene have risen, and the cost of SBR continues to be strongly supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 12th, the price of butadiene was 11,528 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.91% from 11,095 RMB/ton on the 1st; As of March 12th, the price of styrene was 9,410 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.98% from 8,964 RMB/ton on the 1st.

Recently (3.1-3.12), the overall construction of domestic SBR plants started around 720%, and the Hangzhou Yibang 100,000 ton/year SBR plant resumed operation on March 1st; Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhejiang Weitai and other butadiene benzene plants have recently been operating at reduced loads; Shenhua Chemical's butadiene benzene unit plans to shut down for maintenance on the first line starting from the 20th.

Supply and demand side: Yibang's 100,000 ton/year butadiene styrene unit will restart operation from March 1st, while Lanhua and Weitai's butadiene styrene units have recently decreased to around 70% of operation. Shenhua's 150,000 ton/year butadiene styrene unit plans to shut down for maintenance starting from the 20th, and the supply side pressure of SBR is not high recently; After the holiday, downstream tire production continued to increase, providing certain support for SBR. It is understood that as of March 8th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 70%; Overall, there is some support for the supply and demand of SBR, but as the price of SBR rises, downstream consumers may resist high prices and procurement efforts may slow down.

Market forecast: SunSirs analysts believe that there is strong support for the cost of SBR, and the supply of SBR is expected to slightly decline in the later stage. Downstream tire production has increased to a relatively high level, and demand has strong support for styrene butadiene. However, downstream demand has resisted high priced sources. Recently, purchasing enthusiasm has declined, and it is expected that the SBR market will maintain a high consolidation trend after the holiday period.

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