SunSirs: China Asphalt Market first Rises and then Falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from February 18th to 23rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province first rose from 3,640 RMB/ton and then fell to 3,625 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.43%, a month on month increase of 2.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.62%. The widespread rain and snow weather hinders demand, and traders have a high enthusiasm for quoting. However, actual transactions are average, and some spot asphalt prices have remained stable but declined.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, the resumption of production in Xinhai, Jiangsu has driven an increase in the utilization rate of refinery capacity in the area; Qilu Petrochemical has intermittently switched to producing residual oil, and Dongming Petrochemical currently has no production plan, which has led to a decrease in the utilization rate of refinery capacity in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased compared to the previous month, and there are negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The tense sentiment in the Red Sea region has raised the risk premium of crude oil, but the significant increase in US crude oil inventories has limited the increase in crude oil prices. As of February 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contracts was reported at $83.67 per barrel, an increase of $0.64 or 0.8%.

On the demand side, during the Spring Festival holiday, the basic demand in various regions has basically stagnated, and downstream construction has basically stagnated. Coupled with the impact of large-scale rain and snow weather, the overall demand for domestic asphalt has weakened, and market trading is average. The demand side of the asphalt market is bearish.

As of the close of February 23rd, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3,686 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,700 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,675 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,681 RMB/ton in the last trading day, up 2% or 0.05% from the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 98,774 lots, and the holding volume was 203,540 lots, with a daily increase of -1,490 lots.

In the future market forecast, the post holiday asphalt spot market will mainly maintain weak supply and demand, with overall supply remaining relatively low; From the demand side, as the weather improves, the market's demand may increase slightly, but the overall increase is limited. The asphalt analyst of SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate.

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