SunSirs: Market Game, China POM Remained Stable with Minor Fluctuations in January, 2024

In January, the domestic POM market remained stable and volatile, with most spot prices remaining stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of January 31st, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13,025 RMB/ton, a decrease of -0.19% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of SunSirs, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong Province in January first suppressed and then rose, fluctuating and consolidating. During the month, the demand for downstream panel factories was poor, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations was light, making it difficult for transactions to improve, putting pressure on formaldehyde manufacturers. The raw material methanol market first fell and then rose, while the price of formaldehyde followed the upward trend in the second half of the month, supporting fluctuations in the cost of POM.

In January, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to reach a high of nearly 90% at the end of last year, and the industry load significantly decreased to 80% at the beginning of the month. In the future, with the return of production capacity and fewer maintenance arrangements, the load at the end of the month has basically recovered to a high level of 88%. On the other hand, the inventory position of most enterprises during the month is still not high, and the foundation for market support is still in place. It is expected that the high level of POM production will be maintained in the future, and there is still support from the supply side for POM spot goods.

In January, the production level of downstream POM enterprises in China was poor, with enterprises mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption continued to be weak. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. The stocking operations before the end of the month have been completed gradually, and overall, the demand side's support for POM spot prices is weak.

The POM market trend remained stagnant in January. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has rebounded after a decline, and the inventory position of enterprises is low. The supply side pressure is average, and manufacturers have stabilized market confidence through market support operations. However, downstream buyers have poor enthusiasm for accepting orders, and there is pressure to ship high priced goods. Terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and there are more companies on holiday at the end of the month. The overall load is decreasing, and purchasing operations are cautious. The supply and demand game on the market is expected to continue the stagnant consolidation operation of the POM market before the holiday.

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