SunSirs: China Refined Petroleum Coke Showed an Inverted V-shaped Trend in January, 2024

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of refined petroleum coke in January first rose and then fell. In December, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1,735.00 RMB/ton on January 31, 1,720.00 RMB/ton on January 1, with a monthly increase of 0.87%.

Cost side: The international crude oil price trend in January has been upward. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been disrupted, and the instability of the Middle East situation still exists. The market is concerned about supply issues, and crude oil prices are supported to rise. On the other hand, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority announced on Friday that about 30% of North Dakota's oil production is still closed due to extreme cold weather and operational challenges. In addition, the reduction of finished oil inventories in the United States, the approaching Chinese New Year, and strong demand during the holiday will boost the demand for crude oil. The combination of multiple positive factors has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices during the cycle.

Supply side: In January, the shipment of sponge coke at the port improved, with a significant acceleration in delivery speed, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke at the port declined. In the first and second half of January, downstream enterprises actively stocked up, local refineries actively shipped goods, and overall inventory was low, with local refineries actively pushing up prices; In late January, some downstream enterprises basically finished stocking up, and the overall purchasing willingness of downstream aluminum carbon enterprises weakened, leading to a decrease in market purchasing enthusiasm. The local refining petroleum coke market was under pressure for shipments, and refineries lowered prices for shipments.

On the demand side: In January, the price of metallic silicon slightly decreased, and the overall trend was in a downward cycle. The fundamentals of metallic silicon in January were in a state of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of the Spring Festival, the supply side continued to contract, and factories in various regions began to holiday, while operating rates remained low; Downstream, the decrease in procurement operations due to holidays has resulted in a bearish supply and demand situation, leading to a price decline. At present, metal silicon has limited support for petroleum coke.

At present, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke is average, and the demand for carbon in the aluminum market is mainly in demand. The demand for negative electrode materials is average, while the pre calcined anode market is weak. The calcined coke enterprises mainly execute preliminary orders.

The electrolytic aluminum market declined in January. Aluminum prices have almost unilaterally declined in the first half of the year. On the one hand, due to the approaching holiday, downstream processing enterprises have gradually weakened their production, and spot demand has decreased, leading to an increase in the proportion of ingots in the industry; On the other hand, due to the influence of aluminum oxide prices, aluminum prices fluctuate accordingly. The stocking of aluminum carbon enterprises has basically ended, and the procurement of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises will gradually end their stocking, leading to a decrease in market procurement enthusiasm and pressure on local refining petroleum coke market shipments. Refineries will lower prices for shipments. The trading volume in the petroleum coke market is average, and downstream enterprises purchase cautiously, which is negative for the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the local petroleum coke market may experience a slight decline in the near future.

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