SunSirs: Cement Prices in East China Fluctuate and Fall

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, cement in East China has been experiencing a weak decline recently. The price of No. 1 cement is 340.00 RMB/ton, while the price of No. 29 cement is 324.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.71%. The current price is 14.96% lower than last year.

Recently, cement prices have declined in some areas of East China. From the above chart, it can be seen that the cement market has fluctuated slightly in the past three months, with prices continuing to decline this month. In December 2023, the national cement production was 158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; In 2023, the national cement production was 2.023 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. As the Spring Festival approaches, markets in various parts of East China have gradually entered a state of shutdown and vacation, resulting in reduced demand and a decline in cement prices.

Recently, the price of thermal coal has stabilized. In terms of origin, as the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines that have completed production shutdown and maintenance by the end of the year have also experienced a tightening of coal supply due to rainy and snowy weather, as well as safety inspections. As the Spring Festival approaches, limited coal mines are gradually taking a break, but now the purchasing demand for terminal power plants is average, and traders are mainly in a wait-and-see mood.

From January to December 2023, the cumulative decline in indicators such as sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing, real estate development investment, and in place funds of real estate enterprises continued to expand compared to January to November. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing reached a new low since 2012, sales reached a new low since 2016, and development investment scale reached a new low since 2017. However, in December 2023, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 41.6% month on month. In recent years, real estate investment has gradually declined, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.

According to the prediction of SunSirs, the Spring Festival is approaching and the demand for end markets in East China is further weakening. Therefore, cement product analysts from SunSirs believe that the cement market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term.

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