SunSirs: China Local Refining Petroleum Coke Market Fluctuated and Fell Back This Week

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market fluctuated and declined this week. As of January 29th, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1,785.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.92% from 1,820.00 RMB/ton on January 22nd.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has risen this week, and the International Energy Agency expects global demand to increase. Coupled with the low levels of commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, international crude oil futures prices have rebounded.

Supply side: Currently, sponge coke shipments at the port are good, with fast delivery speed. Recently, there have been fewer arrivals of petroleum coke at the port, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the port has declined. This week, some downstream enterprises have basically finished stocking up, and the overall purchasing willingness of downstream aluminum and carbon enterprises has weakened, leading to a decrease in market purchasing enthusiasm. The local refining petroleum coke market is under pressure for shipments, and refineries are lowering prices for shipments.

On the demand side: As of January 25th, China has started operating 313 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall furnace opening rate of 41.7%, an increase of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. This week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces has continued to increase, but due to the impact of northern air pollution, the operating range is limited, and some insulation silicon furnaces have been completely shut down. The supply of industrial silicon has not increased significantly. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, sulfur calcined coke remained stable, with average shipments. The calcined coke market mainly executed preliminary orders.

This week, aluminum prices have fluctuated and risen. On the one hand, this is because aluminum prices have fallen below 19,000 RMB/ton, stimulating downstream pre holiday stocking demand. On the other hand, the news about aluminum oxide is positive, and cost support has strengthened. At present, aluminum inventory is relatively low year-on-year, and the accumulation phenomenon is delayed, better than expected. In the future, we will focus on the dynamic changes in inventory. The short-term aluminum price fluctuates strongly. The stocking of aluminum carbon enterprises has basically ended, and the procurement of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises will gradually end their stocking, leading to a decrease in market procurement enthusiasm and pressure on local refining petroleum coke market shipments. Refineries will lower prices for shipments. The trading volume in the petroleum coke market is average, and downstream enterprises purchase cautiously, which is negative for the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the local petroleum coke market may experience a slight decline in the near future.

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