SunSirs: The Tin Ingot Market Slightly Increased due to Pre Holiday Stocking (January15-22)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1# tin ingot market in East China rose this week (1.15-1.22), with an average market price of 209,610 RMB/ton at the beginning of last week and 214,050 RMB/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 2.12%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices had been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices had fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices had fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market had seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Analysis review

In terms of the futures market, there had been an overall upward trend during the cycle, but as prices rise, the spot market has gradually become wait-and-see and had a certain resistance to high prices. Recently, market trading had been relatively light. In terms of supply, the smelter's operating rate has slightly increased this cycle, and the overall operating rate had slightly rebounded. The supply at the mining end remained tight. In terms of demand, as the spot market continued to rise, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market had significantly weakened. Some enterprises still had pre holiday stocking needs, but the market prices were high, and they held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, temporarily delaying their entry into the market for procurement. In the long run, domestic integrated circuit production will continue to rebound in the near future, and market expectations have improved compared to the previous period.

Market outlook

Overall, there is still purchasing demand downstream in the short term, but high prices have constrained some of the demand. Without demand support, it is expected that the tin ingot market will be stable and weaker in the short term. In the long run, market expectations are still acceptable, and there may be some upward potential in the tin ingot market after the holiday.

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