SunSirs: China Asphalt Market Rises and Falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 12th to 19th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province first increased from 3,563 RMB/ton and then dropped to 3,560 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.08%, a month on month increase of 2.74%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.25%. The maintenance of asphalt spot prices is mainly focused on maintaining stability and minor adjustments. The large-scale rainy and snowy weather in the north has hindered logistics transportation, affecting the shipment and storage of some resources. In most areas of the south, construction has entered the final stage, and the demand for rush work supports businesses to obtain goods. There is still a demand for rush work before the holiday, and some prices are relatively firm.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Dalian JinRMB has reduced production, Henan Fengli has changed production, and Qilu Petrochemical has changed production. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: In the same cycle, the International Energy Agency predicts that global demand will increase, coupled with low commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, international crude oil futures prices will slightly recover and consolidate. As of January 18th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

On the demand side, there is a clear north-south differentiation in asphalt spot demand. Due to the impact of cold wave weather, the purchasing enthusiasm of operators has weakened, and the demand may shift to stocking and warehousing in the future. Operators are more cautious in purchasing according to demand, and the initial demand is slightly flat. The demand for asphalt in the market is mixed.

As of the close of January 19th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3,710 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,748 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,712 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,740 RMB/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 23 RMB/ton or 0.62% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 96,056 lots, a holding volume of 159,237, and a daily increase of 4,543.

According to future predictions, the domestic asphalt market is affected by rainy and snowy weather, and the trading atmosphere is slowing down. However, with strong cost support, the overall market price is relatively stable. The asphalt analyst of SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate.

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