SunSirs: The Overall Price of Refined Petroleum Coke Increased after the New Year

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market has increased after the New Year. As of January 9th, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1,762.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.47% from January 1st at 1,720.00 RMB/ton.

Cost side: The international crude oil market is volatile, mainly due to weak market sentiment. With the impact of the Asian decline in international crude oil prices, SC crude oil has entered a long short tug of war. Lido still faces the unresolved Red Sea crisis. From a bearish perspective, on the macro level, the better than expected US employment data has lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March, leading to a cooling of oil demand expectations. Adding to last week's EIA report, which showed a higher than expected increase in US refined oil inventories, the weakening of US oil demand has weighed on the market. Saudi Arabia's comprehensive reduction in crude oil prices has raised concerns about future energy demand in the market, as well as increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), putting pressure on the oil market.

Supply side: Currently, the shipment of sponge coke at the port has improved, and the delivery speed has significantly accelerated. Recently, there have been fewer arrivals of petroleum coke at the port, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the port has declined. Downstream enterprises actively stock up after the holiday, local refineries are actively shipping, overall inventory is low, and the price of local refined petroleum coke continues to rise.

On the demand side: As of January 4th, there are 304 silicon metal furnaces in operation in China, with an overall furnace opening rate of 40%. The furnaces in the northern region that have been restricted in load due to environmental protection have not yet resumed operation, and supply side disturbances are still ongoing. However, the air quality in the northern region has improved recently, and the market may trade in the expectation of resuming production in the short term. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

After the New Year, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke is still acceptable, but the price of calcined coke first fell and then rose. With the continuous increase in petroleum coke prices, the cost of calcined coke is supported.

After the holiday, the electrolytic aluminum market continued to decline, and as of January 9th, the price was 19,120 RMB/ton. Affected by environmental policies and high prices of electrolytic aluminum, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has declined, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods has been replenished. The overall market situation of carbon for aluminum is still good, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

Currently, with the impact of high prices of locally refined petroleum coke, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased. However, the inventory of petroleum coke in refineries is currently low, and it is expected that the overall high level of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

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