SunSirs: Cement Prices in East China are Weak and Declining

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, cement in East China has recently experienced a weak decline, with a price of 340.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 336.00 RMB/ton on the 4th, a decrease of 1.18% and a month on month increase of 1.20%. The current price has dropped by 14.07% year-on-year.

Recently, cement prices have declined in some areas of East China. From the above chart, it can be seen that the cement market has fluctuated slightly in the past three months, with prices falling this week. Currently, the total production capacity of clinker in China is 1.803 billion tons. In 2023, 16 production lines were put into operation nationwide, with a total clinker production capacity of 23.529 million tons. Cement demand is poor, cement shipments are difficult, and the market is weak and declining.

Coal prices have fluctuated and consolidated this week. In terms of origin, the prices of coal mines have been stable recently. In terms of downstream ports, prices slightly decreased at the end of the month. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will be mainly adjusted based on downstream market demand.

From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 10,404.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%; Among them, residential investment was 7,885.2 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.0%. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1,005.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, with residential sales area decreasing by 7.3%. In recent years, real estate investment has gradually declined, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.

According to the forecast of SunSirs, domestic cement demand has entered a downward cycle, and the cement market lacks support. Therefore, cement product analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the cement market will mainly experience a slight decline.

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