SunSirs: Narrow Upward Tend in China Methanol Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from December 18th to 25th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,450 RMB/ton to 2,475 RMB/ton. The price increased by 1.02% during the cycle, with a month on month increase of 3.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%. The domestic methanol market has shown a narrow upward trend, with some regions affected by weather factors, resulting in high shipping costs and an increase in downstream delivery costs.

As of the close of December 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,486 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,490 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,430 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,443 RMB/ton at the end of the day, a decrease of 26% or an increase of 1.05% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,063,819 lots, and the position was 1,191,686 lots, with a daily increase of -44,188.

In terms of cost and supply, due to the impact of the cold wave, most parts of the country have experienced a cliff like cooling, leading to a significant increase in daily power plant consumption and an increase in terminal stage purchases. However, downstream acceptance of high priced market coal is limited, and transportation continues to be mainly based on long-term contract coal; The cold wave weather has to some extent boosted the consumption of electric coal, and there are still expectations of an increase in daily power plant consumption on the basis of high levels. Some terminal rigid demand purchases with insufficient coal reserves continue to be released, but the supply and demand pattern of the coal market, which is slightly loose in balance, has not changed. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: With the start-up of the Jiujiang Xinlianxin dimethyl ether plant, the demand for dimethyl ether has increased; Downstream MTBE: Shenchi and Lihuayi have plans to start production, resulting in an increase in demand for MTBE; Downstream chloride: The Jiangxi Liwen plant has resumed normal production, and the demand for chloride has increased; Downstream acetic acid: Southwest unit maintenance, extension, and Guangxi Huayi Phase I recovery have increased demand for acetic acid. Downstream formaldehyde: The constant profit formaldehyde device operates under reduced load, reducing the demand for formaldehyde. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, maintenance of equipment in Sichuan Wanhua, Shanghai Mongolia Energy, and Yulin Yankuang; Shaanxi Changqing and Qitaihe Baotailong facilities have reduced production; Xinjiang Xinye, Shenhua Ningmei, Ningxia Baofeng, Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Xinjiang Guanghui, Yunnan Yuntianhua, Xufeng HeRMB, and Yulin Yankuang facilities have been restored. The overall recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 22, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $339.50-340.50/ton, up $6/ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 97.00-98.00 cents/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 292.50-293.50 euros/ton, a decrease of 4.5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, coal prices are expected to remain stable and slightly strong, with some support for methanol production costs. At present, the operating rate of methanol plants is relatively high, and the inventory of enterprises is relatively high. Incremental or relatively limited demand side. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

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