SunSirs: Narrow Fluctuations in China Asphalt Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market fluctuates narrowly. From December 18th to 25th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3,466 RMB/ton to 3,459 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.19%, a month on month increase of 0.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.72%. Although international crude oil rebounded, the fundamentals of asphalt remained weak, with low-priced resources being the main source of transactions. Under the influence of rainy and snowy weather in the north, actual demand was hindered, with inbound demand being the main source. Some resources were mainly from the south and waterproof procurement.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Qilu Petrochemical has intermittently switched production, coupled with the shutdown of Landbridge. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, during the same period, international crude oil futures prices have slightly rebounded and consolidated, but overall they are still operating at a low level. As of December 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $78.80/barrel, a decrease of $0.36 or 0.5%.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. Affected by the factors of rain, snow, and cooling weather, the demand in the northern region is frozen, with some inbound demand being the main demand. The demand in the southern region has also weakened, and the demand in the asphalt market is affected by negative factors.

As of the close of December 22, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3,718 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,751 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,736 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,736 RMB/ton in the end, an increase of 5 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 250,679 lots, and the position was 331,487 lots, with a daily increase of 9,303 lots.

In the future market forecast, due to the expected factors of international crude oil rebound and shortage of raw materials, asphalt futures prices are slightly stronger. Some inquiries for forward contracts have high enthusiasm, but currently there is abundant spot supply, and demand is really flat. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will operate weakly in the short term.

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