SunSirs: China Methanol Market Fluctuates and Rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from December 13th to 20th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in the domestic methanol market in East China ports increased from 2,420 RMB/ton to 2,488 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices increased by 2.79%, with a month on month increase of 1.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.75%. Due to the impact of heavy snow weather in some areas, transportation is restricted, freight rates have increased, delivery speed has slowed down, social inventory in consumer areas has been affected, and the circulation of methanol in the region has decreased, resulting in an increase in downstream delivery prices.

As of the close on December 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,384 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,438 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,376 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,430 RMB/ton at the end of the day, up 48% or 2.02% from the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,233,363 lots, with a position of 1,220,026 lots and a daily increase of -6,448.

In terms of cost and supply, recently affected by the cold wave, many parts of China have experienced heavy snowfall and a sharp drop in temperature. The demand for heating electricity has further increased, and the daily consumption of power plants has shown an overall upward trend, driving market sentiment and expectations to improve. Considering the impact of snowfall on the transportation of vehicles, and the fact that power plants will experience a phase of high coal consumption, the enthusiasm for replenishing storage will increase, and procurement demand may be released to a certain extent. The meteorological forecast shows that the new wave of cold wave has strong strength, with a wider range of cooling and widespread rainy and snowy weather, which will provide positive support for coal prices in the short term. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Due to the shutdown of the Qingzhou Tianan plant, MTBE demand will decrease; Downstream chlorides: The shutdown and maintenance of the Jiangxi Li Wen plant have reduced the demand for chlorides; Downstream formaldehyde: The Lianyi formaldehyde unit operates under reduced load, reducing formaldehyde demand; Downstream acetic acid: Dalian Hengli has production expectations, and the main factories in Southwest China have maintenance plans, resulting in an increase in demand for acetic acid; The demand for dimethyl ether has little fluctuation. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, Yunnan Yuntianhua, Shanxi Jinxiang, Xufeng HeRMB, Chongqing Kabele, JiuRMB Chemical, Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), Xinjiang Xinye, Shaanxi Heimao, as well as one set of equipment maintenance in Chongqing and Xinjiang each; Jiangsu Sopu and Shandong have reduced production of a set of equipment. Ningxia Dadi, Guangju New Materials, and Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian) facilities have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 19th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $331.00-$332.00/ton, up $2/ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is between 100.00 and 101.00 cents/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 296.00-297.00 euros/ton, a decrease of 10.25 euros/ton.

In the future, it is predicted that rainy and snowy weather in many areas will continue to affect transportation efficiency, and the arrival situation between regions will vary, resulting in certain market fluctuations. The methanol analyst of SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic methanol market situation will mainly consolidate and operate.

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