SunSirs: Cement Prices in East China Fluctuate slightly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the cement market in East China has recently slightly increased. The price was 341.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of last week and 346.00 RMB/ton on the weekend, an increase of 1.47%. The current price has dropped by 14.57% compared to last year.

Recently, some areas in East China have seen a slight increase in cement exploration. In the past three weeks, the cement market has mainly seen a slight increase, with prices fluctuating and rising last week. In November, the national cement production was 189.79 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; From January to November 2023, the national cement production was 1,867.35 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. From January to November 2022, the national cement production was 195.01 million tons, a decrease of 82.75 million tons in the entire range, a decrease of 4.24%. The weather is good, and the demand for cement has rebounded compared to the previous period, driven by the rising market in the Yangtze River Delta region. The cement market in East China has mainly slightly increased, but inventory pressure is still significant, with limited growth.

Recently, the price of thermal coal has fluctuated slightly, and the production area is currently affected by safety inspections, resulting in limited overall supply of coal mines. In terms of downstream ports, although there has been a certain increase in downstream demand due to weather conditions, the downstream maintains a wait-and-see attitude. Although there is a certain demand, the market is in a stalemate on the basis of long-term coal supply guarantee. It is expected that short-term consolidation of thermal coal will be the main operation, and the specific situation will depend on downstream market demand.

From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 10,404.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%; Among them, residential investment was 7,885.2 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.0%. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1,005.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, with residential sales area decreasing by 7.3%. Downstream funding issues are still ongoing, and demand recovery is poor. Specifically, the marginal investment in real estate has weakened again, and it is still bottoming out in the short term, with weak support for the cement market.

According to the prediction of SunSirs, construction sites have been going smoothly in the near future, and there is a good demand for cement. Therefore, cement product analysts from SunSirs believe that the cement market will mainly experience a slight increase in the short term.

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