SunSirs: Regional Differences in China Asphalt Market Trends

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market varies among regions. From December 4th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3,454 RMB/ton to 3,477 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.68%, a month on month decrease of 5.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.07%. International crude oil has been continuously declining, with weakened cost support. Some businesses are mainly taking a wait-and-see approach, and market demand support is limited. Prices may maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend.

On the supply side, as for the main production enterprises, Hebei Kaiyi currently has no production plans, Qilu Petrochemical intermittently switches production, PetroChina Gaofu suspends production, and Yunnan Petrochemical intermittently suspends production. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, macro level, global economic data remains weak, and the market generally expects to maintain the current interest rate policy unchanged, possibly starting to lower interest rates in March next year. On the supply and demand side, the increase in finished oil inventories in the United States last week exceeded expectations, especially the surge in gasoline inventories, which exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market towards fuel demand. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have not tightened their production cuts as expected by the market. The expectation of loose supply has put pressure on oil prices.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. Cold air is coming, and the cooling, rainy and snowy weather in northern regions is increasing, which may hinder the demand for essential goods, and market demand is expected to gradually weaken. The weather in the southern region has been favorable recently, and the market demand has been supported. The demand for asphalt in the market is mixed.

As of the close of December 11th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2402 opened at 3,709 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,719 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,676 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,690 RMB/ton in the last trading day, up 9 RMB/ton from the previous settlement, an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume was 162,571 lots, and the position was 296,728 lots, with a daily increase of 435.

In the future market forecast, although the supply and demand are relatively balanced in the short term, the decline in crude oil has weakened sentiment. Coupled with the expectation of a decline in future demand, asphalt analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic asphalt market will maintain a stable, moderate, and weak operation.

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