SunSirs: Negative Pressure, China Sugar Market has been Fluctuating and Declining Recently

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic sugar market has been weak and declining recently. From October 6th to December 6th, the average price of domestic sugar dropped from 7,494 RMB/ton to 7,086 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 5.44% during the cycle.

In terms of the spot market, Guangxi Sugar Group has basically cleared its inventory of old sugar, with new sugar priced at around 6,970 RMB/ton. Yunnan Sugar Group's price range for old sugar is 6,940-6,980 RMB/ton, and the price range for processing sugar factories is 7,190-7,430 RMB/ton. Currently, new sugar is about to be launched in the white sugar market, and prices are fluctuating downward.

Supply side: In the 2022/2023 crushing season, Guangxi has cumulatively squeezed 41.2213 million tons of sugarcane and produced 5.2703 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 849,100 tons; The sugar production rate is 12.79%, and the Guangxi sugar cane is expected to increase by about 14% to 47 million tons during the 2023/2024 new squeezing season. The sugar production is also expected to increase by about 14%. In terms of additional sugar supply, during the 2022/2023 squeezing season, China imported a total of 1.586 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, an increase of 459,300 tons year-on-year. The new squeezing season of white sugar has led to an increase in sugar production, putting pressure on sugar prices.

Import volume: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative import volume from January to October was 3.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4%. In October 2023, China imported 920,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 381,100 tons month on month or 70.72%; An increase of 402,600 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 77.81%. Among them, Brazil is the largest supplier, importing 889,000 tons of sugar from the country that month, an increase of 75.52% month on month and 82.94% year-on-year. The increase in domestic imports has impacted the spot sugar market, putting pressure on sugar prices to decline.

Consumption: The sugar consumption in China during the new squeezing season is 15.7 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to the previous squeezing season; The domestic sugar supply and demand gap in the new squeezing season is 5.7 million tons, which is supplemented by imported sugar and other alternative syrups.

Due to the arrival of the new domestic crushing season, domestic white sugar has reached a production peak with sufficient supply. Traders generally maintain a low inventory state to avoid the risk of price decline. The high domestic white sugar prices have led to an increase in the import volume of supplementary sugar sources. In the international market, the congestion problem at Brazilian ports in the early stage has been alleviated, and the import volume has increased. The global sugar trade flow has also eased, and the combination of negative news has led to a weak and downward trend in white sugar prices.

In summary, the current transaction volume in the sugar market is weak, and it is the new squeezing season when a large amount of sugar is listed. With sufficient market supply and easing export supply tension, it is expected that sugar prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term.

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