SunSirs: Affected by Terminal Demand, China Local Refining Petroleum Coke Rises and Falls

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 21, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1,772.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.01% compared to 1,737.50 RMB/ton on November 13.

The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. The inflation level in the United States remains a concern, with the Federal Reserve indicating that interest rates may still be raised in the future, and the US dollar rising, putting pressure on the prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold denominated in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased, as the seasonal decline in internal demand in the Middle East region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the US crude oil inventory growth exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and bearish factors, leading to a decline in international oil prices during this cycle.

Recently, the cost of sponge coke arriving at the port has been reversed, and traders' shipping sentiment is average. The speed of port shipment is slow, and the port inventory has increased. The price of ground refining petroleum coke fluctuates, with limited downstream demand and average hoarding enthusiasm. The market for ground refining petroleum coke shipments is divided, with good shipments of medium to high sulfur coke and a downward trend in low sulfur coke prices.

As of November 16th, there were 413 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 56.65%, a decrease of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. 78 furnaces were opened in Yunnan, 67 furnaces were opened in Sichuan, and 152 furnaces were opened in Xinjiang. Due to the arrival of the dry season in the southwest region, the cost of silicon factories has increased, and the number of furnace shutdowns has increased, resulting in relatively strong quotations from silicon factories; There are still small profits in the northwest region, with an increase in the number of furnaces and sufficient supply of warehouse receipts for shipment. However, downstream purchasing sentiment is not high and prices are weak. At present, metal silicon is mainly in demand for petroleum coke procurement.

Recently, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke has been average, with poor delivery and overall market downturn. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand and production is maintained.

At present, electrolytic aluminum has stopped falling and rebounded, with a price of 10,920 RMB/ton as of November 21. Yunnan has a dry season electricity production capacity of around 900,000 tons, and is expected to stop production and complete it this week; Baiyinhua Aluminum Power Phase II, with a capacity of 200,000 tons, will be put into production by the end of October and is expected to reach production by mid December. The overall market situation of carbon for aluminum is weak, and the demand for petroleum coke remains high.

The recent international crude oil market has been fluctuating, with limited support for the petroleum coke market. The overall downstream market is weak, and the main focus is on on-demand procurement of petroleum coke. It is expected that the refining of petroleum coke in the near future will mainly focus on consolidation.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.