SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices Stop Rising and Drop, with Short-term High Range Fluctuations

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp both stopped rising and fell last week. On November 17th, the average market price of softwood pulp in the Shandong region was 6,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.44% compared to the average price of 6,240 RMB/ton on November 12th. On November 17th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in the Shandong region was 5,450 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the average price of 5,480 RMB/ton on November 12th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp stopped rising and fell last week. The prices of softwood pulp have slightly rebounded towards the weekend, but the overall price is still declining. In terms of supply, recent domestic port pulp inventory has continued to decline, and overseas pulp factories' inventory has also shown a downward trend. With the easing of supply pressure, spot prices of wood pulp have loosened and fallen. However, the US dollar quotation for external pulp is strong, and as the exchange rate approaches 7.3, the import cost of pulp continues to remain high, providing some support for the spot price of domestic imported wood pulp.

In terms of demand, the current operating situation of downstream paper mills is relatively stable, and the demand for wood pulp remains stable. The pullback in wood pulp prices is also aimed at digesting the bearish trend of weak supply and demand margins. As downstream demand gradually weakens, it will affect transactions in the short-term wood pulp spot market. At present, downstream paper mills are basically in a state of just in need to purchase, and the strong willingness to sell in the finished paper market has caused the price of wood pulp to fluctuate mainly in the range.

In terms of futures, on November 17th, the opening price of the SP2401 pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,100 RMB/ton, with the highest price of 6,122 RMB/ton and the latest price of 6,044 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 0.26%. The trading volume was 540,000 hands and the position was 207,220 hands.

SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that the current supply and demand situation in the wood pulp market has eased, and downstream finished paper price increases are frequent. In addition, the rising import exchange rate has provided positive support for the spot price of wood pulp. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp may continue to fluctuate in the high range.

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