SunSirs: Narrow Decline in China Asphalt Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market has experienced a narrow downward trend. From November 1st to 8th, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3,806 RMB/ton to 3,759 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.23%, a decrease of 2.42% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.80%. The asphalt market is slightly flat, with some resource quotations stabilizing and declining, and due to factors such as environmental protection, inspection, and inspection, market demand is relatively average. Some contracts have high enthusiasm for shipment, and enterprise quotations are mostly at a low level.

In terms of supply, the main production enterprises include Xinjiang Tianzhize stopping production of asphalt, Panjin Baolai stopping production intermittently, Cangzhou Jincheng stopping production of asphalt, Shandong Shengxing and Jincheng stopping production of asphalt, which has led to a decrease in production in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, oil prices have fallen to their lowest point in the past three months. The main reason is that the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has sparked demand concerns and eased supply tension. As of the close on November 7th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures' main contract was $81.61 /barrel, a decrease of $3.57 or 4.2%.

On the demand side, the asphalt market mainly focuses on low-end transactions and prioritizes the use of social resources. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 8th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2401 opened at 3,684 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,694 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,590 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,607 RMB/ton in the end, a decrease of 102 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.75%. The trading volume is 275,811 lots, the holding volume is 251,452 lots, and the daily increase is -2,258.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with weakened cost support. The market for just demand is slightly flat, and the overall situation is lukewarm, with low end transactions mainly focused on just demand. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will operate in a weak manner in the short term.

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