SunSirs: China Domestic Ship Fuel Market Continued to Decline in October

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of October 30th, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5,398.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.53% from 5,538.00 RMB/ton on October 1st.

On October 30th, the fuel oil commodity index was 109.33, a decrease of 0.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 20.14% from the cycle's highest point of 136.91 points (2022-11-17), and an increase of 137.26% from the lowest point of 46.08 points on August 15th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

In October, the domestic fuel oil price of 180CST continued to decline, while the international crude oil market fluctuated and declined. The decline in domestic finished oil exacerbated the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic ship fuel market; In the ship supply market, the demand in the terminal market continues to be sluggish, and shipowners are cautious in replenishing their goods. Transactions are light, with small orders being the main demand. According to SunSirs, as of October 30th, the self extracting low sulfur quotation for fuel oil 180CST in the Ningbo area of China National Petroleum Corporation is 5,450 RMB/ton, and the self extracting low sulfur quotation for fuel oil 120CST is 5,500 RMB/ton; The quotation for 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in the Shanghai region of China National Combustion Corporation is 5,300 RMB/ton, and the quotation for 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5,400 RMB/ton.

The crude oil market continued to fluctuate in October. At the beginning of the month, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude. The mid-term supply-demand game will continue, with tight supply and slowing demand remaining the main themes of oil price trading. The weekly inventory report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in mid month showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped significantly last week, with a more than expected decrease. Coupled with tensions in the Middle East, this has brought a bullish trend to the crude oil market, with prices hitting nearly two week highs. With the strengthening of diplomatic efforts and the easing of tensions between Palestine and Israel, the market has shown some optimism about supply restrictions, and the oil market has come under pressure and declined. Overall, crude oil prices are still at a high level.

Singapore's fuel inventory has decreased. It is reported that the Enterprise Development Authority (ESG) of Singapore has increased its fuel inventory by 141,000 barrels in the week ending October 25th, reaching a one month high of 19.535 million barrels. Singapore's medium distillate oil inventory increased by 312,000 barrels, while Singapore's light distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels.

The international crude oil market is fluctuating, and the decline in domestic refined oil exacerbates the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic ship fuel market; In the ship supply market, the demand in the terminal market continues to be sluggish, and shipowners are cautious in replenishing their goods. Transactions are light, with small orders being the main demand. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is around 5,300-5,500 RMB/ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120CST is around 5,400-5,600 RMB/ton, which is a single negotiation. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

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