SunSirs: Fluctuations in China Methanol Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 19th to 26th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,450 RMB/ton to 2,430 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.82%, with a maximum amplitude of 1.22%, a month on month decrease of 1.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.56%. There are currently no significant factors affecting price fluctuations during the cycle, and the domestic methanol market is operating in a narrow range.

As of the close of October 26th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has increased. The main contract for methanol futures 2401, opened at 2,411 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,428 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,386 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,403 RMB/ton in the late trading session, up 2% or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,191,705 hands, the position was 1,200,388 hands, and the daily increase was -43,573.

In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports are increasing, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature continues to decrease, the civil electricity load drops, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively low. Currently, the terminal is mainly supplemented by long-term cooperation, and the demand for coal in the market is relatively flat. The cost of methanol is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Lankao Huitong and Xinxiang Xinlianxin parking have reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: Ningbo Juhua plans to undergo maintenance, resulting in reduced demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: The Luqiao plant in Guigang, Guangxi has started construction, and the demand for formaldehyde may increase; Downstream acetic acid: With Sinopec Great Wall and Hubei Hualu gradually increasing their load, the demand for acetic acid has increased; The demand for MTBE has not changed much. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, maintenance of one set of equipment in Shanxi Jiyang, Guizhou Chitianhua, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Inner Mongolia Shilin, and Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Ningxia; One unit in Sichuan Daxing and Jiangsu has reduced production; Inner Mongolia and Baitai, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Ningxia Qinghua, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Inner Mongolia Shilin, as well as Yunnan, Shandong, and Shanxi, each with one set of equipment restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of October 25th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00- $347.00/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 96.00-98.00 cents/gallon, up 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 325.00-326.00 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton.

In the future, the fluctuation of raw material coal prices is relatively weak, and the cost has no support for the market temporarily. Domestic supply is gradually recovering, and downstream demand may change or be limited. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

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