SunSirs: This Week, Rebar and Wire Rod Prices Rose First and Then Fell (October 9-13)

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the prices of rebar and wire rods in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions slightly decreased this week. As of the 13th, the average price of rebar HRB400 in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions was about 3,652.89 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the beginning of the week; The average price of high line HPB300 in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions was 3,855.2 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the beginning of the week.

Market aspect:

As the weekend approached, the national engineering demand was 79,003 tons, a decrease of 10.48% compared to the previous trading day. From January to August, the national investment in real estate development reached 7,690 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 8064.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 567.792 million square meters, a decrease of 7.3%. The newly constructed area of houses was 638.91 million square meters, a decrease of 24.4%. Among them, the newly constructed residential area was 466.36 million square meters, a decrease of 24.7%. The completed area of houses was 437.26 million square meters, an increase of 19.2%. Among them, the completed residential area was 317.75 million square meters, an increase of 19.5%.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in August 2023, China exported 8.282 million tons of steel, an increase of 974,000 tons compared to the previous month and a month on month increase of 13.4%; From January to August, a total of 58.785 million tons of steel were exported, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%. From the data, the domestic steel export volume had reversed its two consecutive months of decline and reached the second highest level within the year.

Inventory and Production

This week, the weekly production and inventory of rebar have decreased, while the total weekly production and inventory have slightly increased.

On the upstream side, the third round of increase in the coke market of 100-110 RMB/ton has been fully launched, and steel mills have not responded yet; Port iron ore vibration consolidation; The decline in the scrap steel market has slowed down. The demand for goods on the construction site is not high, and intermediaries purchase according to demand, resulting in a lack of vitality in market transactions. The profits of steel mills are poor, and the market is expecting a reduction in steel production. Currently, the data reduction is weaker than expected. Supply continues to be at a low level within the year, providing support for the price of rebar and wire rod.

Market outlook

The low supply pattern of linear screw has not changed, but the positive effect is limited, while the performance of terminal demand is weak, and the sluggish pattern of real estate has not changed. It is difficult to be optimistic about the demand for construction steel, and it is expected that rebar and wire rod will maintain a low volatility pattern at a low level.

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