SunSirs: Stainless Steel Rose First and Then Fell This Week (September 18-22)

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, stainless steel rose first and then fell this week. As of September 22, the average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plates 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (with a tolerance of 0.91) was 13,928.57 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.76% from 14,035.71 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 28.47%.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the price trends of nickel and stainless steel were mostly similar, with upstream nickel affecting the price of downstream stainless steel.

Analysis review

Supply and demand side: In August 2023, the production of 300 series crude steel from 43 domestic stainless steel factories reached 1.7498 million tons, an increase of 3.5% month on month and 34.2% year-on-year; In September, the production was 1.783 million tons, an increase of 1.9% month on month and 26.6% year-on-year. Indonesia's crude steel production in August was 415,000 tons, an increase of 48.2% month on month and a decrease of 0.2% year-on-year; In September, production was 400,000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The expectation for the golden September and silver October peak season in the market had weakened, and there had been no significant increase in terminal demand. However, there will be a need to replenish inventory before the holiday.

The cost of stainless steel had risen, squeezing the profits of steel mills. Some manufacturers reduced production due to weather or maintenance, and there were doubts about the fulfillment of high production in September. Social inventory was at a seasonal high, warehouse receipt resources were accumulating, and market confidence was insufficient.

Market outlook

Overall, costs had support, and there was a need to replenish inventory before the holiday after the market falls. However, inventory accumulated and high prices were difficult to transmit to the terminal. It is expected that stainless steel will experience a mainly fluctuating trend in the short term.

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