SunSirs: Consolidation and Fluctuations of China Methanol Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 6th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,540 RMB/ton to 2,491 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 1.93%, with a month on month increase of 4.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.60%. The methanol futures market has retreated from a high level, and the sentiment in the spot market has weakened. Traders have been cautious in their operations, slowing down the speed of methanol pickup, increasing inventory of production enterprises, and manufacturers selling at inflated prices. The market is stagnant, and the domestic methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating.

As of the close on September 13th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed lower. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2,577 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,596 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,520 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,525 RMB/ton in the end of the day, a decrease of 35% or 0.04% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,647,833 lots, the position was 1,216,986 lots, and the daily increase was 207 lots.

On the cost side, in the off-season of agricultural demand on the demand side, cautious procurement is the main focus for industrial demand. In the short term, the price of chemical coal may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: due to the shutdown of the Shaanxi Weihua plant, the demand for dimethyl ether has decreased; Downstream MTBE: After the construction of Shandong Shenfa, the load gradually increases, and the demand for MTBE may slightly increase; Formaldehyde: The daily production of Zibo Hengyun equipment is increasing, and the demand for formaldehyde may increase; Downstream acetic acid: After reducing the load of Tianjing, it will recover, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; The change in chloride is not significant. The demand for methanol is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of two sets of devices in Chifeng BoRMB, Yulin Kaiyue, and Shandong, Inner Mongolia; Anhui Carbon Xin, Hebei Jinshi, Shaanxi Black Cat, Wangcang Hezhong, and a set of devices in Inner Mongolia have been restored. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on September 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $329.25-330.25/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 75.00-77.00 cents/gallon, up 1 cent/gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 228.00-230.00 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, costs are relatively weak, and there are breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking in terms of supply and demand by netizens. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

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