SunSirs: China Methanol Market Weakens narrowly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 1st to 8th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol at the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,551 RMB/ton to 2,485 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 2.58%, with a month on month increase of 6.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.85%. As the methanol market price rose to a high level in the early stage, downstream olefin losses deepened, and purchasing willingness weakened. At the same time, the methanol futures market weakened at the beginning of the week, affecting the cautious mentality of traders. The speed of picking up methanol slowed down, and the inventory of production enterprises increased, resulting in a narrow weakening of the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on September 8th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2,536 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,543 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,497 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,523 RMB/ton in the late trading session, a decrease of 39 RMB/ton or 1.52% compared to the previous trading day settlement. The trading volume was 1,280,871 hands, the position was 1,206,635 hands, and the daily increase was -55,598.

On the cost side, in the off-season of agricultural demand on the demand side, cautious procurement is the main focus for industrial demand. In the short term, the price of chemical coal may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: due to the shutdown of the Shaanxi Weihua plant, the demand for dimethyl ether has decreased; Downstream MTBE: After the construction of Shandong Shenfa, the load gradually increases, and the demand for MTBE may slightly increase; Formaldehyde: The daily production of Zibo Hengyun equipment is increasing, and the demand for formaldehyde may increase; Downstream acetic acid: After reducing the load of Tianjing, it will recover, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; The change in chloride is not significant. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, maintenance of two sets of equipment in Chifeng BoRMB, Yulin Kaiyue, and Shandong, Inner Mongolia; Anhui Carbon Xin, Hebei Jinshi, Shaanxi Black Cat, Wangcang Hezhong, and a set of devices in Inner Mongolia have been restored. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on September 7th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $299.50-300.50/ton, a decrease of $3/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 74.00-76.00 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 229.50-231.50 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

In the future market forecast, there is still demand for downstream stocking before the holiday, and there is not much change in supply. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will mainly experience high volatility.

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