SunSirs: China Domestic Methanol Market fluctuated and rose in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has been fluctuating and rising. From August 1st to 30th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market has increased from 2,355 RMB/ton to 2,541 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 7.89% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 9.01%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.33%.

At the beginning of the month, the main factor for the price increase was the demand side. A large downstream MTO device may be in storage and operation, and the demand side is good. In addition, the macroeconomic benefits have also played a certain driving role. At the same time, the port inventory has been significantly depleted, and the methanol market is gradually improving.

In mid month, the early maintenance equipment gradually resumed, and the industry's operating rate rebounded. At the same time, port inventory gradually accumulated, and the supply side was affected by bearish factors. On the other hand, most downstream product companies are in a period of lucrative profits, and the industry's operating rate is relatively strong. The supply and demand sides are in a game, and the methanol market has entered a stage of range fluctuations.

In the latter half of the month, driven by demand, the methanol market continued to improve, with a significant increase in order volume. The market atmosphere was relatively high, and shipments were smooth.

As of the close on August 30th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have risen. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2521 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,596 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,504 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,596 RMB/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 87 RMB/ton or 3.74% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,374,639 lots, the position was 1,281,567 lots, and the daily increase was 80,957 lots.

On the cost side, the overall supply and demand structure of the current chemical coal market is still showing a loose trend. In addition, as the "peak summer" enters the second half, the terminal daily consumption gradually shows a seasonal decline trend. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Anhui Huayi is undergoing maintenance, but the demand for acetic acid may increase if Thorpe and Guangxi Huayi restore to full capacity; Downstream MTBE: Lu Shenfa has a construction plan, and MTBE demand may increase; Below is formaldehyde: Liuyang Jinggang is recovering, and formaldehyde demand is increasing; Downstream chloride: Mainstream factories in Shandong are returning to normal, and demand for chloride may increase; The demand for dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand side for methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

Supply side, Inner Mongolia Xinhang device maintenance; Yantai Wanhua, Shanxi Coking, Shanxi Junjie, Shanxi Jinxiang, Shanxi Orchid, and a set of units in Inner Mongolia have reduced production; Recovery of units of Yanchang middling coal, Shenglong Chemical, Xinjiang Xinye and middling coal RMBxing. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of August 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $292.50- $294.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 68.00-70.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 232.50-234.50 euros/ton, up 3.25 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, short-term cost support is limited, supply changes are not significant, and demand is expected to increase. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will tentatively rise.

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