SunSirs: Copper Prices Fluctuated and Rose This Week (August 14-18)

Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices had fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 68,906.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the 68,236.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 10.52%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices had fallen for 4 weeks and risen for 8 weeks in the past three months, with a slight increase in recent times.

Analysis review

Macroscopically, US economic data was improving recently, with the People's Bank of China lowering its MLF rate by 15 basis points and reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, respectively, boosting market sentiment and preference for a rebound. China's central bank reported: resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, support the resolution of local debt risks, adjust real estate policies in a timely manner, boosted market confidence, the renminbi appreciated, and non ferrous metals have generally rebounded.

Supply side: The mining side remained abundant. The centralized maintenance of domestic smelting was completed in August, and production would return to a relatively high level. However, it will face centralized maintenance again in September. Long orders of Russian copper continued to flow in, while the arrival pace of Lomo copper was lagging due to the impact of African transportation capacity. Some smelters had export plans.

On the demand side: In July, both Southern Power Grid and State Grid saw an increase in new orders, and some orders would be delivered in August, boosting the industry's operating rate. Some air conditioning and refrigeration enterprises had entered the stage of equipment maintenance and vacation, and consumer support had weakened. The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate had boosted the completion data, but the front-end data was still weak and faced the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. In terms of electronics, demand was slowly recovering.

Market outlook

In summary, the domestic policy efforts continued to increase to benefit the market. In August, the domestic maintenance was completed, and production is expected to return to a new high. There were strong and weak demand, and it is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate.

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