SunSirs: Narrow Fluctuation of China SBR Market

Last week (7.24-7.31), the market of SBR fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 31, the price of SBR in the East China market was 11,758 RMB/ton, unchanged from the price of the previous week's Monday, and the low point in the cycle was 11,725 RMB/ton. The ex factory price of SBR was stable within the week. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 31, the ex factory price of Qilu styrene butadiene 1502 of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11,800 RMB/ton. During the week, the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene continued to rise, and the cost of SBR continued to support; The start of downstream tires fluctuated slightly, and the demand for SBR just needed support. The basic aspects of SBR industry chain are running steadily and smoothly. As of 31, the mainstream offer of SBR 1502 in the domestic market was 11,600-12,100 RMB/ton.

Last week (7.24-7.31), the prices of raw butadiene and styrene continued to rise, and the cost of SBR continued to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 31st, the price of butadiene was 7,201 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.34% from last Monday's 6,968 RMB/ton; As of July 31st, the price of styrene was 8,258 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.77% from last Monday's 7,958 RMB/ton.

Last week (7.24-7.31), the overall operation of domestic SBR plants declined slightly, and the load of Shenhua Chemical SBR plants dropped from Line 3 to Line 2 on the 25th; But the Lanhua Butadiene Plant is scheduled to restart by the end of July; Yibang Butadiene Plant plans to restart operation in August; To sum up, the SBR plant is expected to improve in the later period of construction.

Last week (7.24-7.31), the natural rubber market rose slightly, but the price difference with SBR was small, and the impact was slightly empty. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 31st, the price of natural rubber was 12,080 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.94% from last Monday's 11,850 RMB/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase in half steel tire operating compared to the previous period, and a slight decrease in all steel tire operating compared to the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of late July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province for all steel tires is 6.3%, and for half steel tires, it is around 7.2%.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the cost support of SBR is stronger, and downstream demand needs support, but the supply pressure of SBR is expected to increase in the later period; It is expected that the price of SBR will consolidate at a high level in the short term, and the market may be suppressed after the restart of the plant in the later period. At that time, if the cost and demand support are insufficient, the market of SBR may decline.

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