SunSirs: Petroleum Coke Market continued to rise on the support of China Domestic demand (July 10-16)

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refinery increased last week. On July 16, the average price of Shandong market was 1,909.00 RMB/ton, 2.97% higher than the price of 1,854.00 RMB/ton on July 10.

On July 16, the commodity index of Petroleum coke was 148.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.67% from the cycle's highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 121.98% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

Supply side: port Petroleum coke inventory remains high, refining Petroleum coke steadily and moderately

The inventory of Petroleum coke in domestic ports is at a high level, but the recent arrival of imported Petroleum coke is less. In addition, the shipment of Petroleum coke at ports is active, so the inventory of ports has decreased. This week, the local refining Petroleum coke shipment was average, and the overall price rose. The Petroleum coke price was high, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment increased. The overall purchase was based on demand.

On the demand side: terminal operating rate increases, demand increases

Last week, the price of metal silicon rose first and then fell. Due to the expectation of limited electricity due to high temperature weather, the resumption of production in Sichuan region was slow, and silicon factories continued to suffer losses, leading to a rebound in the price of metal silicon. However, the downward quotation from major factories in Xinjiang dragged down market sentiment and silicon prices fell again. As of July 13, 315 sets of metal silicon furnaces had been started, with an overall opening rate of 42.76%, an increase of 5 sets on a month on month basis. The operating rate of metal silicon has risen, and the purchase of Petroleum coke has increased.

The market of locally refined Petroleum coke continued to rise, while the market of calcined coke rose slightly. The recovery of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Yunnan and the reclamation of mines in Henan will lead to the reduction of local alumina production capacity, as well as the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Shandong. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum market will rise as a whole, and the demand for carbon for aluminum is good, which will still provide good support for the Petroleum coke market.

At present, the inventory of Petroleum coke produced by Shandong Local Refining Co., Ltd. is at a medium low level, the downstream enterprises can make replenishment, the local refining enterprises' turnover is average, and the terminal just needs to support the price of Petroleum coke produced by Shandong Local Refining Co., Ltd. However, as the price of locally refined Petroleum coke increases, the downstream cost increases, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. In addition, the port Petroleum coke resources are sufficient. It is expected that in the near future, the downstream will mainly purchase on demand, and the locally refined Petroleum coke may stabilize, rise slightly.

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