SunSirs: Sorting Out of China Methanol Market Situation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has been sorted and operated. From July 3rd to 7th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market has dropped from 2,180 RMB/ton to 2,160 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.92%, with a maximum amplitude of 1.95%, a month on month decrease of 1.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.35%.

The domestic methanol market is mainly organized, with some units in the northwest and Henan regions planning to store and operate. The market supply is expected to increase, and the market mentality is weak. Traders tend to be more wait-and-see oriented, with average shipments from mainland China and a significant reduction in deliveries from port areas. The short-term methanol market environment is still weak.

By the end of July 7, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2,155 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,183 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,142 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,157 RMB/ton in the end, an increase of 16 RMB/ton or 0.75% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,216,929 lots, the position was 1,733,415 lots, and the daily increase was 41,422 lots.

On the cost side, the coal market is moving towards a moderately loose supply and demand trend, and the supply capacity of coal will continue to strengthen. The coal market situation will be weak and consolidated in the short term. The cost side of methanol is relatively empty.

Demand side, downstream MTBE: Shandong Huayi and Haite Weiye have construction plans, and MTBE demand may increase; Downstream acetic acid: Sop, Guangxi Huayi, and Shanghai Huayi may resume full load, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream chloride: Shandong Luxi has negative expectations for storage and extraction, and demand for chloride may increase. There are expected to be positive factors in the short-term demand for methanol.

On the supply side, Shanxi Yaxin, Yangmei Fengxi, Yanchang middling coal, Inner Mongolia Xin'ao, Shaanxi Jingyi Chemical and two sets in Sichuan, one set in Chongqing and one set in Guangxi were overhauled; Shanxi Everbright, Xiaoyi Pengfei, Jinfeng Wenxi, Shanxi Jinfeng, Shanxi Coking Company, and Shanghai Huayi reduced production. Jiutai New Materials, Qitaihe Baotailong, Shanxi Linxin, Shenhua Xinjiang, Shanghai Huayi, Hebi Coal Chemical, and the restoration of one unit each in Guangxi, Heilongjiang, and Shanxi. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 6th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $288.00- $290.00/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 72.00-74.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 193.50-195.50 euros/ton.

Future market forecast shows abundant supply and slow improvement in demand. SunSirs Methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by consolidation.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.