SunSirs: During the Seasonal Off-season in the First Half of 2023, the Lead Ingot Market Tended to Be Volatile-II

Other factors affecting lead price:

Lead downstream applications mainly include lead–acid battery, lead oxide, lead alloys, lead salts and cables, among which lead–acid battery are the most important areas of lead consumption, accounting for more than 80%. China is a major producer, consumer and exporter of lead–acid battery, so it is easy to understand the downstream demand of lead by focusing on the production of lead-acid batteries and other data. From 2015 to 2022, the output of lead–acid battery in China increased year by year, and fell to the lowest level in 2018. Since then, it had continued to rise with a rapid growth rate, which had a good demand support for domestic lead ingots.

From 2012 to 2022, China's lead production had significantly increased in the past 10 years, especially since 2015, where lead production was increasing year by year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative lead production from January to December 2022 was 7.811 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to May 2023, the national lead production was 3.269 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. In the first half of 2023, the overall supply of lead ingots was relatively sufficient.

According to a report from the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined lead production in April 2023 was 1.165322 million tons, with a consumption of 1.223342 million tons and a supply shortage of 580,200 tons. The global lead ore production in April 2023 was 3,666.82 million tons.

Market outlook

As of the end of June, the maintenance of primary lead and recycled lead enterprises in terms of supply and demand had basically ended in mid June. Currently, manufacturers are actively operating, and with the rise of lead ingot prices and the recovery of manufacturers' profits, there are expectations of an increase in lead ingot supply due to active operation. In terms of demand, the downstream market is still in the off-season, and the sales situation of batteries is still not significantly improving. Battery companies maintain the demand for replenishment and mainly support the demand for lead ingots. In the short term, the recent improvement in the export situation of lead ingots has boosted the market to a certain extent. However, under the influence of the off-season in the domestic market, it is difficult for the lead ingot market to have significant fluctuations. In the short term, it still maintains a small fluctuation trend, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future. In the long run, as the weather turns hot, the battery industry will enter a seasonal peak season in August and September. The peak season usually lasts until the end of November when the weather turns cold. At that time, downstream demand for lead ingots will improve, and there will be some room for market prices to rise.

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